Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 252117
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
417 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
a strong cold front will bring heavy rain showers, scattered
thunderstorms and gusty winds to the region through this
evening. Much colder air will filter into the area with some
light accumulating snowfall especially over the higher terrain
tonight, as blustery and cold conditions finish the weekend with
temperatures more typical of late February.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
a Flood Watch remains in effect for the western Mohawk Valley,
the upper Hudson, the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga
region and southern Vermont from today through Sunday. See
the hydrology section for details...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40 is in effect until 9 PM for the
entire forecast area except Herkimer and Hamilton counties...
The cold front is merging with the pre frontal convection and
with the enhanced instability over our region, the line of
storms will March eastward with scattered damaging winds and
possibly some hail. An elevated mixed layer and associated extra
instability will strengthen updrafts, supporting scattered
severe thunderstorms as strong low level winds and enhanced
downdrafts produce some damaging winds.
Rainfall has been locally heavy in the storms and there are
still concerns about the combined heavy rain and snow melt. The
Flood Watch remains in effect and will be watching trends in
river levels closely.
The temperature gradient along the front is impressive as
temperatures fall quickly to the upper 30s and lower 40s once
the storms exit. Trailing precipitation behind the front may be
showing hints of expanding westward as upper dynamics and some
lake moisture interact. As cold advection deepens through
tonight, the trailing precipitation should change to snow
showers and higher elevations from the southern Adirondacks
through the southern Green Mountains and northern Berkshires
could see an inch or two of snow before daybreak. Everywhere
else will see scattered snow showers with dustings at the most.
Lows tonight in the 30s but 20s in higher elevations.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/...
deep cold advection Sunday with lake effect snow showers
extending into the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks
and Schoharie valley. Northwest winds will be quite gusty but
indications are that wind gusts most likely below advisory
criteria but this will be reevaluated tonight with new guidance
and trends in data. Highs Sunday in the near 40 to mid 40s but
lower 30s northern areas.
Flat upper ridging builds into our region Monday and boundary
layer temperatures are expected to warm. A small piece of upper
energy tracks just south of our region but very little moisture
to work with. Boundary layer flow turns to southwest and
downslope, also suggesting any light precipitation should have
some low level dry air to overcome, again limiting chances for
precipitation. Intervals of clouds and sun along with
downsloping, occasionally gusty winds should help temperatures
reach the lower 50s. Some 40s expected in northern areas and mid
50s southern areas.
Another upper impulse with stronger warm advection affects our
region Tuesday with at least scattered showers. More clouds and
better coverage of showers will prevent surface temperatures
from warming as much as they could with the boundary layer
temperatures warming as much as is expected. Highs Tuesday in
the 40s to lower 50s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
an active weather pattern with large temperature fluctuations is
expected through the long term period, with temperatures trending to
below to potentially well below normal by next weekend.
For Tuesday night-Wednesday night, a frontal zone with multiple
waves of low pressure is expected to approach from the Great Lakes
region. An initial surge of warm advection should bring some
precipitation to the region Tuesday night, and could start as snow
or a wintry mix across at least northern areas, if not slightly
further south, before changing to plain rain by Wednesday morning.
A stronger low is expected to develop along this front and track
into the Great Lakes region later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Expect additional periods of rain and drizzle during this time.
Depending on the ultimate strength and track of this low, there
could even be some embedded convection with the system's cold front
sometime Wed night.
The low should strengthen and track into southeast Canada Thursday.
Again, depending on its ultimate strength, strong winds may buffet
the region Thursday, perhaps well reaching advisory levels for some
Another weaker system is expected to track south of the region
Friday, possibly bringing some light snow or snow showers to at
least southern areas.
Temperatures will be above normal through at least Wednesday night,
with highs in the 40s and 50s, and lows mainly in the upper 30s to
mid 40s, although some lower 30s are possible Tuesday evening across
northern areas before rising through the night.
For Thursday-Friday, more seasonable temperatures are expected, with
highs mainly in the 30s and 40s Thursday, and 20s to mid 30s Friday.
Temps may actually fall through the day on Thursday.
By next Saturday, even colder air is expected to spread into the
region. Expect highs in the teens and 20s, except possibly for some
lower 30s across the Mid Hudson valley, with overnight lows mainly
in the single digits and teens. Brisk winds could lead to wind
chills dropping into the -10 to -20 range across the southern
Aviation /21z Saturday through Thursday/...
VFR/MVFR conditions in place early this afternoon with some
stratus clouds in the 2500-3500 ft above ground level layer in a warm sector
ahead of a cold front. The cold front was positioned over west-
central New York as of 1230 PM. This strong cold front will push
eastward across the region this evening. Just ahead of and along
the front, a solid line of rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms will cross the terminals from west to east between
22z and 01z this evening. Will mention prevailing IFR conditions
with moderate rain, with a tempo group for +tsra and gusty winds
of 35-40 kt with the expected line of storms.
Some precipitation will linger after the cold front pushes
through, with cold air quickly moving in. This will allow for a
possible period of rain changing to snow for an hour or two
before ending between 02z-03z. Will mention rain/snow mix for
now in the kalb/kpsf/kgfl tafs, with more precise precip type
transitions with the subsequent taf issuance. VFR conditions
should return by around 04z-05z.
Winds will be southerly around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Winds will shift to the
west-northwest behind the cold front. Wind speeds/gusts will
increase shortly after sunrise Sunday.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig weather.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain.
Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 31.0 chance of rain showers...shsn.
Flood Watch in effect for the western Mohawk Valley, the upper
Hudson, the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga region and
southern Vermont from today through Sunday. Runoff will result
from a combination of snow melt over the past couple days and
heavy rainfall this afternoon into this evening.
At this time minor flooding of some main Stem rivers is expected,
including the Upper Mohawk, smaller rivers/streams in areas with
significant snow depth in the southern Adirondacks and southern
Green Mountains of Vermont, and possibly even portions of the upper
Hudson basin. There remains the potential for flooding for areas
south of the watch, but confidence is much lower with less
rainfall and snowmelt expected. So will continue to mention
the threat in the severe weather potential statement for possible expansion of the watch if
A quick moving, strong cold front is expected to bring a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall through this evening. Total
rainfall forecast of around a half an inch to around 1.25 inches
is forecast through tonight, with the lowest amounts in the
Mid Hudson valley and northwest Connecticut, and the highest
amounts over the western/southern Adirondacks. The time frame
for greatest potential for flooding is during and after the cold
front passage due to heavy rain/snow melt combination and
subsequent runoff. The precipitation will change to snow quickly
behind the front especially over the mountains, which will slow
down the run-off tonight.
Drier and colder air will filter in behind the cold front for
Sunday, with some lake effect snow possible across the western
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Strong west to northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph with strong gusts will also slow down the
runoff later in the weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.
daily record high temperatures set again at Albany with 70
degrees, and Glens Falls reached their daily and monthly records
today with 70 degrees.
New York...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for nyz032-033-038>043-
Vermont...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for vtz013>015.