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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1228 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal passage and upper level trough will push through the
region tonight. A period of rain and snow showers, along with lake
effect, to impact portions of the region through tonight. A brisk
northwest flow with residual snow showers and flurries continue into
the start of the weekend with improving conditions expected
toward the second half of the weekend. Then a chance for light
snow increases Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM EST...Lake effect and upslope conditions continue
into this early afternoon as upper level trough located over
southeastern Canada continues to have an influence over the region
thanks to a cold cyclonic flow in place.

12z KALY sounding shows that 850 hpa temps have fallen to around
-8 degrees C thanks to the ongoing cold air advection within the
broad nw flow aloft. MRMS imagery shows some light snow showers
and flurries continuing to impact the region thanks to a
combination of cyclonic flow/upslope/lake enhancement, mainly for
areas north and west of the Capital Region. With inversion
heights not very high, these snow showers and flurries will be
fairly light and won't amount to much today. Any snow accumulation
will be limited to the higher terrain and basically less than an
inch for most areas.

It looks fairly cloudy across the majority of the area, although
some breaks of sun look to occur across the Hudson Valley and
Capital Region thanks to downsloping off the high terrain later
this afternoon. It will continue to be fairly breezy this
afternoon as well, with some gusts of 20-30 MPH possible.

Highs for most of the area look to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s,
although high terrain of the Adirondacks and southern Greens will
only reach the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...Any lingering snow showers will come to an end as
flow starts to become anticyclonic with high pressure moving east
from the eastern Great Lakes. Lows will be in the upper teens to
upper 20s.

On Sunday...Expect dry and mainly sunny skies as a large ridge of
high pressure crests across the region. Highs will range from the
upper 20s and lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.

For Sunday night and Monday...A trough of low pressure will be
impacting the region as it dives southeast from the upper Great
Lakes. While there is not a great deal of moisture associated with
this system, the bulk of the pcpn looks to fall as snow. Snowfall
amounts look to be less than an inch in the valleys with a couple
of inches across the higher terrain. Lows Sunday night are
expected to be in the upper teens to upper 20s with highs on
Monday in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

For Monday night...Expect high pressure to move across the region
with dry conditions once again and lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active southern and northern streams with a complex pattern next
week. Looking at unsettled weather with near seasonable
temperatures.

Overall guidance is in agreement with large scale features/systems,
however as is typical for this time frame the differences are
with the individual short waves moving through the flow and their
timing, amplitude and influence on the large scale features. Have
taken lead from the Weather Prediction Center for the timing of
systems to maintain forecast consistency.

A storm system originating in the deep south near the gulf coast
is expected to eventually pass to our south moving off the
southeast/mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing
overrunning precipitation to the region. A period of snow is expected
with some light accumulations. A lull is then expected as the next
system evolves with northern and southern stream energy possibly
interacting/phasing. The uncertainties regarding this system are
much greater. The expectation is for this system to impact the
local area Thursday into Friday with rain and snow during the day
and snow at night. QPF amounts are expected to be higher than the
system earlier in the week. Guidance does agree colder air should
be ushered into the region with the passage of the system with
blustery conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The combination of cyclonic flow around a departing upper level
trough and some moisture off Lake Ontario is allowing for plenty of
clouds over the region this afternoon, although flying conditions
are primarily VFR.  Cannot totally ruled out some MVFR cigs at KPSF
due to low ceiling heights over the next few hours, otherwise skies
will continue to be VFR with bkn-ovc cigs at 4000-6000 ft for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours.  W-NW Winds
will continue to be rather breezy, especially at KALB. Winds will be
10-20 kts with some gusts of 20-30 kts possible.

Winds will start to decrease this evening as the pressure gradient
starts to relax, although W-NW winds will still be 5-10 kts.  VFR
conditions are expected overnight, with sct-bkn cigs at 3500-5000
ft.  The most clouds will be at KGFL/KPSF.

Skies will start to clear out for Sunday, although there will still
be a fair amount of clouds around during the morning hours due to
moisture trapped beneath an inversion.  KPOU should see clear skies
by 14z, with skies mainly sct at other sites by the late morning or
early afternoon hours, with continued VFR conditions. N-NW Winds
will continue to be 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels will continue to slowly recede through the next
several days.

Through Saturday there will be periods of lake effect/upslope
rain/snow showers. Snow will be likely at higher elevations with a
mix of rain/snow showers in the valleys. The precipitation will be
heaviest in the western Adirondacks where it will fall mostly as
snow. The precipitation through Saturday will have little impact
on rivers and streams.

Some light snow is possible Sunday night into early Monday, with
better chances for wintry precip towards the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...Frugis/BGM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11/JPV

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