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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1023 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Synopsis...
with warm temperatures and humid conditions in place, showers and
thunderstorms will move across the region this afternoon into this
evening. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. With the passage of a cold front
tonight, slightly less humid air will move into the region for
tomorrow, but temperatures will continue to be rather warm with a
partly to mostly sunny sky.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1023 am EDT...mrms imagery shows quiet weather currently
over eastern New York and western New England. However, a broken
line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving across
central New York and headed eastward towards our area. These
thunderstorms have been locally strong in intensity over western
and central New York.

This morning's 12z kaly sounding showed little instability
in place over the region, thanks to several caps in place aloft.
However, the upstream sounding at kbuf shows a more favorable
sounding for thunder and the potential for strong to severe
storms. With an upper level shortwave headed eastward, our
environment will become more unstable and conducive for strong
storms by later this afternoon.

The latest 3km hrrr suggest that this initial line of
showers/T-storms may weaken as it reaches into our area by around
midday or early this afternoon. However, another stronger line of
convection looks to develop by later this afternoon and into this
evening, and it's expected that by that time, it will more
unstable with more favorable mid level lapse rates. There's still
a question to the degree of instability that will be in place, as
lingering cloud cover from this initial line of convection that
limit the amount of available heating. Still, hi-res model
guidance and forecast soundings show enough instability/shear in
place (especially for Albany on southward), for storms to be
locally strong to severe. Storm Prediction Center has placed southern parts of the County Warning Area
back in a slight risk for severe storms, with the main threat
being damaging winds.

It will be another very warm/hot day across the area in
the warm sector with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s for much of
the region. High temperatures in the lower 90s in the Mid Hudson
valley combined with dew points into the lower 70s will result in
heat indices of around 100 degrees for a few hours this afternoon
so have issued a heat advisory for eastern Ulster and western
Dutchess. Much of the rest of the forecast area will experience
heat indices in the 90s.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
convection will be winding down and moving off to the east with
the pre-frontal trough early in the evening. The cold front will
move across the region late in the evening and during the early
morning hours. A drier airmass will be ushered in the wake of the
boundary, however only slightly cooler.

Ridging will build in the lower levels of the atmosphere through
the middle of the week, while the flow aloft flatten and becomes
zonal. Expecting fair weather with continue above normal
temperatures with westerly flow across the area. Highs both
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to range from the upper 70s to
lower 90s with Wednesday a bit warmer than Tuesday. Nighttime lows
will be near to slightly above seasonal levels.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
a low confidence forecast in the long term...as the GFS and Canadian
guidance is much different compared to the European model (ecmwf) and superblend of
the guidance. The latter guidance package favors wet and unsettled
weather with a cold front stalling over eastern New York and western New
England with slight or low chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday into the weekend. To stay consistent with the neighboring
forecast a superblend of the guidance had to be utilized.

Thu-Thu night...an amplifying upper level trough will allow a cold
front to approach the region during the day. The front lacks robust
moisture convergence and strong upper level support. Only a low
chance of showers with a slight chc of thunderstorms was used. H850
temps will be in the +15c to +18c range from the Adirondacks
southeast into the Mid Hudson valley and northwest CT. Highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s were favored in the valley areas...and upper 70s to
lower 80s over the higher terrain. The front stalls near the I-90
corridor according the wpc guidance Thursday night. Lows will be on the
mild side with mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations and upper
50s to lower 60s over the mountains.

Fri-Fri night..the front becomes stationary over southern New York and
southern New England. The GFS/can ggem would have the mid and upper
level trough amplify enough for high pressure to build in...and this
would be a drier scenario. The ec has showers and thunderstorms
increase ahead of a sfc wave and the stationary front lifting back
slightly north as a warm front. Again...based on the blend of the
guidance this was favored with slightly cooler temps with mid 70s to
mid 80s for highs. It will remain humid with dewpts in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Lows will range from the mid and upper 50s over the
srn dacks...and srn greens to upper 60s over the Mid Hudson valley
and portions of northwest CT.

Sat-sun...more unsettled weather potentially with a series of
disturbances moving along the front with a rather flat upper level
trough near the Great Lakes region. Chances of showers will persist
with slight to low chances of thunderstorms in the moist
environment. Some of the rainfall could help the Hydro service area
due to the persistent dry wx/drought conditions over the past month
or so. Temps are expected to be close to late July normals.

&&

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/...
high pressure will move east of New England today, as a warm front
moves through. A cold front will move across the region late this
afternoon and tonight.

Mid and high clouds continue to increase across eastern New York and
western New England this morning ahead of the warm front. VFR
conditions should prevail into the early afternoon.

As the warm front moves across eastern New York some isolated/scattered
showers and thunderstorms may occur in the early PM and vcsh groups
were issued. The better chc of thunderstorms will be ahead of the
cold front...and prob30 groups were used with thunderstorms btwn 20z
to 00z/Tuesday for kgfl/kpou...and our thinking was a better chc for
kalb/kpsf. Some brief reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible in any thunderstorms.

VFR conditions are possible after 00z/Tue...but there maybe some
patchy MVFR/IFR mist around where any showers or thunderstorms occur
after 04z.

The winds will be light to calm early this morning and then will
become south to southwest at 5-12 knots into the afternoon. Some gusts
in the 15-20 knots range will be possible in the afternoon before
becoming light after 00z/Tue.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
westerly wind with gusts into the teens and 20s Tuesday
afternoon...

Another day with hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across
the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. With the passage of
the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will
be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair dry
weather to the area through the middle of the week.

&&

Hydrology...
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across
the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water
values rise to around 2 inches. Ponding of water on roadways along
with some minor urban flooding of low lying and poor drainage area
is possible. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a
slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High
pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the area through
the middle of the week. Unsettled weather is expected late in the
week through the weekend.

&&

Climate...
here is a look at the number of 90+ degree days so far this year
through July 24th, what is normal and the most that has occurred
in a year.

Albany ny:
2016: 9 days
normal: 10 days
most: 32 days in 1955
note: daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls ny:
2016: 8 days
normal: 6 days
most: 22 days in 1988
note records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie ny:
2016: 16 days with 10 days in July and another forecast for today
normal: 15 days
most: 30 days in numerous year most recently 2010, 2005 and 2002
note: records date back to 1949, however data is missing from
January 1993 through July 2000

Pittsfield ma:
2016: 1 day
normal: 2 days
most: 7 days in 2010
based on data dating back to 2000

Bennington vt:
2016: 2 days
normal: 3 days
most: 9 days in 2010
based on data dating back to 2000

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for nyz064-065.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis
near term...iaa/frugis
short term...iaa
long term...wasula
aviation...wasula
fire weather...iaa
hydrology...iaa
climate...

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