Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kaly 281057 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
656 am EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Synopsis...
behind a departing cold front, dry weather is expected for most
of the area today into the weekend; however, some rainfall is
possible across far southern areas as low pressure passes by to
the south. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler than normal.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 615 am EDT, fog is beginning to lift across the area but
still remains dense in spots so please continue to use caution
when driving this morning. As daytime heating ensues, any
remaining fog should burn off by 7-8am. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track for today. Freshened up the hourly temps and
sent updates to ndfd and web servers.

Prev disc...
a weak frontal boundary continues to sag south through the area
early this morning and is currently in vicinity of of the Albany. This
front brought a few spotty showers to the northern portion of
the forecast area but also brought variable cloudiness. The
front is expected to wash out across the area along with the
showers. Currently, there are only a couple spotty showers in
southern Vermont. In areas that experienced clearing earlier
have developed patchy dense fog. The latest GOES-16 advanced
nighttime microphysics channel distinguishes the areas of fog
versus the mid and high level clouds well.

The remainder of today will be a quiet weather day as the
region remains situated between high pressure (and drier air)
to the northwest and a developing low to the south. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s,
with low 70s in the high terrain.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
a compact, upper low is forecast to move from the western Great
Lakes today to the Delmarva by tomorrow morning. Cyclogenesis
will occur on the Lee side of the mid-Atlantic Appalachians,
forming a surface low near the Delmarva/New Jersey coastline by 12z/Sat.
The surface low, in conjunction with the upper low, will
lift northeastward along the mid-Atlantic to New England
coastline Saturday into Sunday. The system and upper trof axis will
get elongated along the coastline with the best dynamics
generally remaining offshore.

Fortunately, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry
through this period. There is a chance for some showers across
the southern portions of Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties
late today into Saturday afternoon as the upper low feature
passes by to our south. There will also be plenty of cloud cover
across the southern third of the forecast area through Saturday
evening.

With the system to the east, north to northeast flow will ensue,
advecting in drier and cooler air. Lows Friday night will be
fairly chilly up north, in the low to mid 50s, but mild down
south, in the low 60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper
60s and low 70s area wide. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the mid 50s, possibly the upper 40s across the highest
terrain. Though, cloud cover could keep temperatures even
cooler than forecast during the day Saturday.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
a rather tranquil period of weather with seasonable temperatures
through the long term forecast.

The second half of the weekend looks like Summer as short wave ridge
axis is expected to slide across the region with h850 temperatures
near +12 to +14c. This should allow for valley temperatures to
approach 80f with mainly 70s elsewhere under a good deal of July
sunshine.

A weakening trough axis approaches on Monday. Due the weakening
nature of this feature and lack of distinct wave aloft as the flow
becomes more northwesterly, an isolated convective element may
develop but too low of a probability as we will keep the weather dry
for now. Temperatures continue to moderate with a return of low
level moisture as dewpoints climb back toward 60f.

Monday night into Tuesday, flow aloft becomes a bit more cyclonic as
that weak boundary could become a focus for isolated to scattered
convection through the daylight hours Tuesday. Rather warm and
humid conditions are expected with highs into the 80s and dewpoints
into the 60s.

A stronger frontal boundary is expected to approach for the mid and
late week. This will serve to increase southerly winds and warmer
with more moist conditions advecting into the local area. This will
increase the probabilities for showers/thunderstorms.

&&

Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/...
the main aviation hazard early this morning will be IFR/LIFR
conditions with fog/low-stratus. These restrictions are expected to
diminish within a couple hours of sunrise. Then diurnally driven
VFR scattered cumulus field should develop with a light northerly wind.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
drier weather is expected to take hold today into the weekend,
although isolated showers are possible across the southern
portions of the forecast area late today into Saturday. Relative humidity
values will fall in the mid-40s to mid-50s range this
afternoon. It will be progressively drier into Sunday, with relative humidity
values bottoming out around 40 percent by Sunday. North-
northeasterly winds could become a bit breezy on Saturday,
gusting to around 25 mph at times.

&&

Hydrology...
conditions will generally be dry today into the weekend, but
some periods of rainfall may impact areas around the Mid-Hudson
valley and northwest Connecticut Friday night into Saturday.
Models continue to keep the heavier rainfall south of the
forecast area, with generally light amounts of 0.15" or less
expected. Trends will continue to be monitored as there will be
a sharp cutoff in precipitation amounts, so a slight northward
shift in the storm track could result in increased quantitative precipitation forecast totals.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...okeefe/Thompson/jvm
near term...jvm
short term...jvm

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations