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fxus61 kaly 171941 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
341 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure will move off the eastern Seaboard tonight, and
will remain in the vicinity through the remainder of the week,
allowing dry conditions to persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will trend back to above seasonal normals.

&&

Near term /through Wednesday/...
mainly clear skies are expected during the near term period
with temperatures moderating as high pressure drifts to our
south and east. A warm front may result in a little more in the
way of clouds across the western Adirondacks. There will be some
late night fog and temperatures should be about 10 degrees or
so warmer than last night. Expect lows tonight to be in the
upper 30s to lower 40s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s
to around 70.

Winds will be light and variable overnight into Wednesday.

&&

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/...
Wednesday night into Thursday, weak height falls will occur
locally as a baggy midlevel trough approaches in conjunction
with a stronger disturbance tracking east to the north of the
international border. The effect this will have on the local
weather will be largely nil as the column will remain very dry
and local forcing will be weak. Mid and high level clouds may
increase somewhat. Lows Wednesday night will be milder than
tonight with a warmer airmass in place. As for high temps
Thursday, mav MOS is 5-10f warmer than met MOS over much of the
capital district, likely due to the forecast deeper mixing and
veered SW flow in the GFS compared with the NAM. Will use a
blend of the two, similar to the superblend temps. We saw last
Sunday that the warm temps forecast by the mav MOS ended up
being too high which could end up being the case here.

Surface winds will veer Thursday night into Friday as a weak
frontal boundary tracks through the region and high pressure
rebuilds into the upper Ohio Valley and western New York. Temps
will be knocked down a few degrees relative to Thursday as h850
temps fall around 5c. Still expecting highs several degrees
above normal with abundant sunshine.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Monday/...
high pressure will transit the region over the weekend,
providing a continuation of tranquil and seasonably mild
weather. Signals of a pattern change for early next week as a
strong Pacific jet carves out an upper trough over the northern
plains which migrates eastward. Considerable uncertainty with
how this will play out, but medium-range forecast models and
ensembles suggest shower chances as early as Monday as the
leading edge of height falls approaches, but more likely by
Tuesday and thereafter.

&&

Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
sky will be mostly clear through the period ending 18z
Wednesday as high pressure controls our weather. There may be
some late night fog at the taf sites so have placed 2sm br in
the tafs late tonight.

Winds will become south to southwest late this afternoon and
evening. Winds trend toward calm this evening and remain light
to calm through tonight into Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure will move off the eastern Seaboard tonight, and
will remain in the vicinity through the remainder of the week,
allowing dry conditions to persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will trend back to above seasonal normals.

After some dew/frost formation tonight, relative humidity values will bottom
out mainly in the 40 to 50 percent range Wednesday and Thursday.

Winds will be from the west to southwest at mainly around 5 to
10 mph Wednesday and Thursday, possibly a bit higher on
Thursday.

&&

Hydrology...
no precipitation is expected through at least the end of the
week thanks to persistent high pressure, with flows remaining
at normal to below normal seasonal levels. The next chance of
rainfall is early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kl/Thompson
near term...11
short term...Thompson

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