Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 161107
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
607 am EST Sat Dec 16 2017
below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.
Moderate accumulations of lake effect snow are expected across
portions of the western Adirondacks into early Saturday
afternoon. Otherwise fair weather is expected through the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the western
Adirondacks until 100 PM this afternoon.
Lake effect snow will continue this morning and will gradually
shift south as the morning progresses. A cold front will
disrupt the flow as it moves through the region later this
morning into this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will build
in behind this front bringing the lake effect snow to an end.
Additional snowfall amounts in the advisory area are expected to
be 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts up to 5 inches. Outside
of the lake effect expect some flurries or scattered snow
showers across the higher terrain ahead of the cold front.
Elsewhere expect a mixture of sun and clouds. Highs today will
be in the upper teens to lower 30s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
quiet weather is expected tonight and Sunday as the ridge of
high pressure builds across the region and then shifts east by
late in the day on Sunday. It will be a chilly night tonight as
air from Canada flows into the region. Expect lows tonight to
generally range from 5 below to 15 above zero. Highs on Sunday
will be similar to Saturday generally ranging from the upper
teens to lower 30s.
Sunday night through Monday night will feature the chances for
some light snow or even rain showers on Monday as the forecast
area will be in a warm air advection pattern as a warm front
moves from the Ohio Valley Sunday evening through our region
Monday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper single
digits to mid 20s with highs on Monday in the upper 20s to lower
40s. Lows Monday night will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
much of the long term will be dominated by an increasingly zonal
northern stream flow, although there remains at least some potential
with some southern stream interaction at times.
To start the period, one pv anomaly is expected to move across the
northern Great Lakes into Quebec for Tuesday-Wednesday. Warm
advection should bring at least some light precipitation to northern
areas Tuesday-Tuesday evening, initially driven by some warm
advection. Forecast thermal profiles suggest some light snow, or a
light wintry mix may occur Tuesday morning, before changing to
mainly rain by afternoon, with precipitation chances greatest for
areas mainly north of I-90. Showers may expand south and east
Tuesday evening with a cold front. In the wake of the front, some
lake effect snow showers will be possible across the western
Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley later Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. It should become quite windy Wednesday as a fairly tight
low level gradient develops. Tuesday highs should occur late in the
day, with 30s to lower 40s expected, warmest in valley areas. Some
temperatures could reach well into the 40s across portions of the
Mid Hudson valley. Temperatures will be cooling later Tuesday night,
with lows mainly in the 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Wednesday.
Wednesday highs should be mainly in the 20s to mid 30s, although
highs may occur in the morning before falling in the afternoon with
strengthening cold air advection.
High pressure may build across the region for Wednesday night into
Thursday. However, the one caveat is some southern stream energy,
which most 00z/16 deterministic models and ensembles track from the
Gulf Coast region to the mid Atlantic coast. This track would keep
any associated precipitation well south/east of the region, however
will need to closely watch any northward trends as we approach, as
we have seen other southern stream systems track farther north and
west thus far this cold season than initially expected. Assuming the
more southern track occurs, expect cold and dry conditions, with
highs Thursday in the 20s to lower 30s, and overnight lows Wednesday
night/Thu morning in the single digits and teens.
For Thursday night-Friday, most 00z/16 deterministic models and
ensembles track the next system developing over the Southern Plains
northeast toward the Great Lakes. This may allow light precip,
mainly in the form of snow, to develop across the southern
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region later Thursday night, with more
widespread precipitation possible Friday, especially for areas north
of the I-90 corridor. Although there likely will be warming aloft
with this possible low track, shallow low level cold air may be
tough to dislodge across northern areas, so mixed precipitation
could occur in these areas, with a mix changing to rain farther
south. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 20s, although possibly
rising late; highs Friday potentially in the 30s for northern areas,
with some 40s possible across central and especially southern areas.
Aviation /11z Saturday through Wednesday/...
one weak cold front will settle southeastward across the region
this morning, with another passing south during the mid to late
A lake effect snowband currently extends east to just south of
kgfl. Some filaments from this band could occasionally extend
into kgfl through 14z/Sat, with brief periods of MVFR vsbys
Otherwise, as a second cold front settles southward later this
afternoon, some snow showers may precede/accompany the front,
especially between roughly 18z-22z/Sat. Brief periods of
MVFR/IFR could occur if any snow showers reach the taf sites
during this time.
VFR conditions should then prevail tonight as high pressure
builds back into the region. There is a remote chance that some
freezing ground fog could form at kgfl and kpou toward 12z/sun
given clear skies and winds trending to calm, along with a
snowpack on the ground. Since it is a low probability, will keep
out mention in tafs at this time.
Southwest to west winds at 3-8 knots through sunrise will
gradually veer more into the west and increase to 8-12 knots later
this morning into the afternoon, with a few stronger gusts
possible later this afternoon, perhaps exceeding 25-30 kt, as
the second cold front passes. Winds will then veer more into the
northwest and gradually decrease to 5-10 knots after sunset, and trending
to near calm after midnight.
Low level wind shear has been included in kgfl/kalb and kpou
tafs through around 14z/Sat, as surface winds remain light from
the southwest at less than 5 knots at these sites, while winds
around 2000 feet above ground level increase from the west to 30-35 knots.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
no hydrologic problems are expected into early next weekend. Ice
will continue to form on areas lakes and streams. Any snowfall
will be light with the exception of moderate accumulations of
lake effect snow across portions of the western Adirondacks into
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for