Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 251949
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
349 PM EDT Thu may 25 2017
showers this afternoon will diminish from south to north. A break in
the precipitation this afternoon into the evening may allow for some
gusty winds to impact portions of the Taconics, Berkshires and
southern Vermont this afternoon. Then a coastal storm takes shape
tonight with additional periods of rain expected overnight into early
Friday. The Holiday weekend starts off mainly dry and seasonable
before the threat for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
returns late Sunday into Monday.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
a Wind Advisory remains in effect the northern and central
Taconics Berkshires and Bennington and western Windham counties
in southern Vermont until 9 PM EDT...
As of 330 PM, upper low centered near the Ohio/WV/KY triple point
is readily visible on water vapor imagery. Deep moisture plume
along the eastern periphery of the circulation has mainly pushed
north and east of the forecast area, along with an area of
steadier rainfall that worked through the region earlier. Drier
midlevel air evident on is working in from the south, resulting
in rainfall becoming more showery. Overall, shower coverage
will continue to be on a downward trend from south to north as
this drier air spreads into the region, so have tapered pops to
chance accordingly. Still enough lower-level moisture and lift
to account for at least scattered coverage of showers through
the remainder of the evening, especially along favored eastern-
facing slopes of the higher terrain due to the southeasterly
Advisory-level winds have thus far failed to materialized, but
no changes are planned to the Wind Advisory. As precip coverage
diminishes, there is the chance for slightly deeper mixing to
occur, although the depth of mixing is in question due to the
strong inversion in place. 50 kt winds just above the inversion
depicted on current kenx radar at around 3.5-4 kft mean sea level suggests
potential for advisory-level gusts remains.
Tonight, the upper low center will reorient itself and become
located just south of Long Island by 06z. Deformation in the
northwest quadrant of the low and a trowal signature in the
700-500 mb Theta-E fields is likely to result in an uptick in
precipitation coverage, especially after midnight and along and
east of the Hudson Valley where categorical pops remain in
place. Kept isolated thunder in the forecast as showalter values
go slightly negative. Wind concerns should quickly diminish
after the advisory expires as the midlevel height gradient
becomes baggier in conjunction with the approach of the midlevel
circulation center. With plenty of cloud cover in place, lows
tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s will be slightly above
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
the upper circulation slowly moves into the Gulf of Maine on
Friday. This should result in a diminishing trend in the
precipitation, but with cyclonic flow persisting still expect
plenty of clouds and at least the possibility for a few showers
much of the day. With the cloud cover in place, high temps are
expected to run around 10f below seasonal normals, with the
possible exception of the far south which stands the best chance
to briefly break out of the overcast later in the day.
Very weak ridging at the surface and aloft attempts to build
into the region Friday night, which may result in at least a
partial clearing trend. Lows near normal.
Saturday into Saturday night, quasi-zonal to slightly
northwesterly upper flow with weak high pressure at the surface
argue for a mainly dry period. However, the subsidence signal is
not strong, and the nwp suite amplifies the flow a bit with a
positively-tilted shortwave toward 00z Friday. A few light
showers are not out of the question toward southern portions of
the forecast area, so have slight chance pops creeping into the
Catskills/Mid-Hudson valley Saturday evening and expanding into
the Berkshires/northwest CT Saturday night. Will have to watch to see
if a more amplified/wetter trend continues, but for now still
think this period will be mainly dry. Partial sunshine will
allow temps to return to near seasonable normals.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
upper cut off expected to track slowly across southern Canada just
north of the Great Lakes through the period. There could be a
period of dry weather Sunday until the upper energy gets closer to
our region but the onset of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms should begin by midday and coverage will increase
toward evening. The clouds and approaching rain will keep highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
On Monday, warm advection ahead of a slowly advancing cold front
will support more clouds and increasing coverage of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Even with the clouds and showers, warming
boundary layer temperatures will support highs Monday in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Boundary layer flow is expected to be west
southwest, which could limit the coverage a bit but we will see as
we get closer.
Sources of guidance show little pieces of upper energy tracking
through our region through the southern periphery of the upper cut
off Tuesday through Thursday. The first phase of the cold front
tracks through later Tuesday and there may be a period of less
coverage of clouds and showers during the morning Tuesday allowing
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s but mid 60s to around 70
northern areas. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected Tuesday afternoon and night but again, west to southwest
boundary layer flow may limit coverage a bit.
Boundary layer temperatures cool steadily Wednesday and Thursday as
temperatures aloft cool a bit more rapidly proximate to the upper
low. The proximity to pieces of upper energy tracking through the
southern periphery of the upper low and the cold air aloft should
support scattered showers each day, especially each afternoon with
the daytime heating and instability.
Highs Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s with some mid 70s
southern areas and lower to mid 60s northern areas. Highs Thursday
in the uper 60s to lower 70s but around 60 to lower 60s northern
areas.Ay afternoon/evening with some surface based instability,
decent mid-level thermodynamics and kinematic fields. However,
there is a chance that cool, stable air remains across at least
portions of the region, as the warm front may get hung up,
especially if an offshore surface wave develops as pronounced as
some guidance suggests. Chance for thunderstorms will depend
greatly on if and when the warm front moves through the region.
GFS/European model (ecmwf) are hinting at another secondary front moving through
the region on Tuesday with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms yet again. Temperatures are tricky for Monday,
again highly dependent on if the warm front clears the region.
For now, have leaned on the cooler side of guidance, with 60s
for most higher elevations, and lower 70s in valleys, but should
the warm front move through, temperatures across portions of
the region could be at least 5-10 degrees warmer. Overnight lows
mainly in the 50s. Tuesday highs should reach the mid/upper 70s
for lower elevations, and 65-70 across higher terrain.
Wednesday/Thursday, it appears that upper level cyclonic flow and
possible embedded upper level impulses may keep at least scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms across portions of the region, with
greatest chances north of I-90. Some small hail/gusty winds could
occur with any convection given cold air aloft and a fairly strong
mid/upper level wind field. Highs should be in the mid 60s to lower
70s, although may be cooler Thursday behind a reinforcing cold
front. Lows should range from the mid 40s across higher terrain, to
the lower/mid 50s in valley areas.
Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
low pressure near the Delmarva region will move northeast to
Long Island and southern New England tonight, and then will move
slowly east of New England tomorrow.
Periods of rain will continue this afternoon from kalb-kpsf
north and east with the rain tapering to showers or light rain
near kpou. The cigs/vsbys will continue to lower to MVFR levels
in the rain and the deeper moisture. The trend will be for
cigs/vsbys to lower to low MVFR/IFR levels late this afternoon
and tonight. There will be a little lull in the rain activity,
but it should increase again between 02z-06z/Fri. Expecting
fairly widespread IFR conditions for kgfl/kpsf/kalb/kpou. There
could be a rumble of thunder around with the developing coastal
wave and its associated upper level low. The period of rain
should taper to scattered showers/drizzle between 12z-15z/Fri.
There will be a gradual improvement to MVFR conditions in the
late morning, as drier moves into the region.
Low-level wind shear groups were kept in the tafs a few more
hours until 20z/21z with the sfc winds still mainly less than 10
kts with the 2 kft above ground level winds in the 30-40+ kt range. Kpsf
started to gust to 20 kts or so, but the winds have come down in
the rain, they should increase later this afternoon with some
gusts around 30 kts there. The low-level wind Max should move
north of the region after 21z.
The sfc winds will be from the east to northeast at 5-12 kts
this afternoon, except at kpsf the winds will be around 15 kts
with some gusts again in the 25-30 kts range. The winds will
diminish tonight, and be from the north to northeast at less
than 10 kts...and will generally be from the north to northwest
late tomorrow morning at 5-10 kts.
Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Memorial day: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers...tsra.
showers tonight into early Friday will become less widespread
during the afternoon, but still expect a cloudy, cool, and damp
day. Slightly warmer and drier Saturday with light northwesterly
winds. A few showers are possible Sunday with more widespread
activity occurring Sunday night into early Memorial Day.
radar estimates suggest a tenth to around a half inch of
rainfall has occurred today as of mid-afternoon. After a lull
into this evening, a developing system off the coast will
likely bring more rainfall to the region, with up to another
half inch possible. Locally higher amounts could occur along
eastern-facing slopes of the higher terrain. Storm total amounts
should range from around a half into to an inch. While river
flooding is not expected, the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie will
briefly approach flood stage around 06z tonight.
Showers should taper off through the day on Friday, with only
light amounts expected. The next potential for widespread
rainfall is expected Sunday night into Memorial Day.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.
the ASOS in Glens Falls at the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport
will experience outages until communications are fully
New York...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for nyz054-061.
Massachusetts...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for maz001-025.
Vermont...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for vtz013-014.