Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
136 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
it will remain brisk and chilly through this afternoon into
Wednesday with high pressure building in. The high will quickly
shift off the east Wednesday night, as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. A cold airmass will be in place, and the
precipitation is expected to start out as snow Thursday morning,
even in valley locations. At this time, a change over to rain is
expected across most of the area by late in the day. Rain may
change back to snow across higher elevations Thursday night as
colder air filters back in.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 100 PM EDT...radar showing a few light returns across the
Catskills. Most of the returns are very light. It will continue to
be breezy this afternoon with cyclonic flow aloft. Latest
satellite showing a bit more clouds across the Mid Hudson valley
region. Will adjust sky grids for the next 5 hours. It will remain
brisk this afternoon, with northwest winds 10-20 mph possibly
gusting up to 25-30 mph at times.
High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 40s to lower 50s across
lower elevations, with mainly upper 30s to mid 40s for higher
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
tonight-Wednesday, as the low level flow becomes more northerly,
expect clouds to become less prevalent. However, as a low level
subsidence inversion strengthens, will have to watch for pesky
lower clouds which may linger in some areas into at least
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, increasing sunshine for most areas
Wednesday afternoon. Low level cold air will continue to slowly
advect into the region, so expect slightly colder lows tonight
with mins ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs Wednesday
mainly in the mid/upper 40s for lower elevations, and mid 30s to
lower 40s for higher elevations.
Wednesday night-Thursday night, there is increasing consensus from
the models that an upper level shortwave approaches from the Great
Lakes region and strengthens as it approaches. Warm advection
ahead of this feature will allow clouds to increase Wednesday
night, with precipitation developing toward daybreak across the
eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson valley and western Mohawk Valley,
and possibly as north and east as the capital region, southern
Berkshires and northwest CT. At that time, p-type should be snow given a
cold thermal profile. Precipitation should rapidly overspread the
region from southwest to northeast Thursday morning, initially in
the form of snow, then changing to rain after around 1-2 hours
after onset in most valleys, and by late morning into mid
afternoon for most higher elevations, except for the western
Adirondacks, where snow may linger well into the afternoon.
For most valley locations, as well as higher terrain of
Litchfield Colorado CT, any snowfall accumulations should remain from a
coating to less than an inch, mainly on colder grassy surfaces.
Higher elevations should see the potential for at least 1-3 inches
across the Berkshires and southern VT, with 3-5 inches across
portions of the eastern Catskills and much of the western
Adirondacks. The greatest totals are expected across portions of
Hamilton and far northwest Warren counties, where isolated amts could
reach up to 6-8 inches for the highest elevations. There could
even be a bit of sleet/freezing rain across these areas late
Thursday afternoon or evening, before precipitation changes back
to snow. For other areas, mainly rain is expected late Thursday
afternoon/evening, tapering to rain showers later Thursday night.
As for temperatures, Wed nt/Thu am lows are expected to fall into
the mid 20s to around 30 for most areas. It could be even colder
if high clouds are delayed, but given the expectation for faster
warm advection, and also that the models seem to be a bit too
aggressive with the cold in MOS temperatures compared to 2-M
temperatures, have went at least a few degrees above MOS for
mins. Temperatures probably will reach mins around or just after
midnight before gradually rising. Then, late day highs should
reach the lower/mid 40s in valleys, and mid/upper 30s across
higher terrain Thursday. Thursday night lows should fall back into
the 30s for most areas.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
a fast moving flow will keep storm systems in the forecast every
other day with very little time for dry weather in between.
Friday looks to be unsettled during the morning with perhaps drier
weather during the afternoon as a weak ridge of high pressure
briefly moves across the region lasting into Friday night.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 30s to lower 50s with lows
Friday night in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Another system moves into the eastern Great Lakes for Saturday
bringing another round of mixed precipitation Saturday morning which
will quickly transition to rain before changing back to mixed
precipitation across the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks
Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s
with lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Sunday through Monday expect mainly dry weather as another weak
ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Highs on Sunday are
expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 50s with lows Sunday night
in the 30s and highs on Monday in the upper 30s to mid 50s.
Overall expect temperatures to be below normal with precipitation
near normal to slightly above normal.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
low pressure continue to move into the Canadian Maritimes this
afternoon. The northwest flow in the wake of the system associated
with the upper low will keep it brisk with intervals clouds into
tonight. High pressure will build in for tomorrow across eastern
New York and western New England.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours ending
18z/Wednesday for kgfl/kalb/kpsf/kpou. In the broad cyclonic flow expect
mainly broken-overcast conditions with stratocumulus clouds in the 4.5-6.0
kft above ground level into early this evening, then the clouds will gradually
thin shortly before or just after midnight. Overnight, few-sct
clouds will prevail with decreasing winds.
More sun than clouds is expected late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon with few-sct stratocumulus around 5 kft above ground level.
Northwest to north winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts will
persist until sunset. The winds will generally be less than 10 kts
after midnight, and may completely decouple at kpou/kgfl to 5 kts
or less. The winds will increase from the north to northwest
around 10 kts late tomorrow morning.
Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of snow.
Thursday: high operational impact. Definite rain...sn.
Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite rain showers...ra.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...ra.
Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
it will remain brisk and chilly through Wednesday with high
pressure building in. The high will quickly shift off the east
Wednesday night, as a low pressure system approaches from the
west. A cold airmass will be in place, and the precipitation is
expected to start out as snow Thursday morning, even in valley
locations. At this time, a change over to rain is expected across
most of the area by late in the day. Rain may change back to snow
across higher elevations Thursday night as colder air filters back
no hydrologic issues expected this week. Other than some light lake
effect/enhanced rain/snow showers mainly south and west of the
capital district, looking at generally dry conditions through at
least Wednesday evening.
A more widespread period of precipitation is expected Thursday
and Thursday night. With a cold airmass in place and the precipitation
is expected to start out as snow Thursday morning even in valley
locations. At this time, a change over to rain is expected across
most of the area. Precipitation amounts up an an inch are possible.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our