Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 261801
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
201 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017
the cold front that passed by to our south on Saturday will
return as a warm front today. Due to chilly temperatures in
place across the region, areas of freezing rain are possible.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through tonight as warmer air
continues to filter in from the southwest. The next surge of
moisture arrives through Monday with more rainfall expected to
be followed by another storm system on Tuesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
Freezing Rain Advisory has been cancelled for the Mohawk Valley,
Herkimer County, and the eastern Catskills. A Freezing Rain
Advisory remains in effect across most of the western
Adirondacks and southern Vermont...
As of 140 PM EDT, precipitation has come to an end south and
west of the capital district so have cancelled portions of the
Freezing Rain Advisory early. Elsewhere, mainly light rain
continues, with some spotty areas of freezing rain. This
precipitation should lift out of the area later this afternoon
providing dry weather for the area. Later tonight, additional
moisture and rainfall will move into the region from the
southwest. This will bring a more substantial rainfall and some
freezing rain to the region through tomorrow morning.
In terms of the forecast, have adjusted the pops down for this
afternoon and bumped temperatures up. Sent updates to ndfd and
there will be a period of little to no precipitation this
evening as mid level dry slot behind the departing mid level
short wave ridge tracks to the east. Then a more pronounced
isentropic lift arrives overnight into Monday morning. Low level
jet magnitudes increase to greater than 30kts which continues
the warm advection regime. However, for portions of the southern
greens, the colder air may linger a bit longer as low level
ageostrophic flow remains easterly as we will continue with the
advisory at this time. For the remainder of the region, we will
watch those temperatures closely and either issue sps's or
expand briefly the west-southwest.
Temperatures should moderate into the 30s and not much change
expected into tonight.
Short term /Monday through Monday night/...
Monday-Monday night...model suite continues to support a
warming pattern reducing any additional threat for freezing
rain. Next wave approaches and cross most of the region Monday
with periods of rain, drizzle and some fog through the short
term. Temperatures moderate into the 40s with just a few degrees
cooler at night but remaining above freezing.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
the extended period will start out unsettled, but a brief break in
the active weather is expected for the middle to latter portion of
The models still show some subtle differences regarding the expected
frontal passage for Tuesday into Tuesday night. While all models
and ensembles show at least a chance for rain showers on Tuesday,
the GFS and many members of the gefs show a wave of low pressure
along the front moving across the area for during the day. This
could allow for a more concentrated area of showers and even a
steady rain for during the day. Meanwhile, the European model (ecmwf) and ggem show
this wave a little further south over the mid-Atlantic, so while
some showers are still possible thanks to the frontal passage, any
steadier rainfall would remain south of the area. With rainfall
still expected due to at least the front, will go with high chc to
likely pops across the area. Ahead of the boundary, temps should
warm into the upper 40s to upper 50s, despite cloud cover thanks to
a southerly flow and mild temps aloft.
Some lingering rain showers are possible for Tuesday night and these
showers could even end as some snow showers for the highest
elevations of the southern green mts and Adirondacks for late
Tuesday night as colder air works into the area. Otherwise, rain
showers will taper off as the front heads eastward and temps fall
into the 30s. Any snow accumulation would be limited to just a
coating and only for the highest elevations.
Behind the front, somewhat cooler weather will return for Wednesday.
There still may be a rain or snow shower across the high terrain
thanks to the cooler temps aloft and the nearby upper level trough,
otherwise it should be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Temps will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most areas, although downsloping
and breaks of sunshine could aid the capital region and Mid-Hudson
valley to reach the lower to middle 50s.
Dry weather will be in place for Wednesday night through Thursday
night with high pressure over the area. Temps will be close or just
slightly below seasonal normals with mainly clear skies.
Another storm system could impact the region between Friday and
Saturday. Some models show a system approaching from the west with
a chance for rain and snow, while others keep this whole system
south of the region. For now, will go with a blend of guidance,
which is basically chc pops and temps near normal temperatures.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
mainly VFR conditions are expected through this
afternoon/evening as the light precipitation from this morning
continues to lift out of the region. Rain and low level moisture
returns after about 02z/Mon with lowering visible and ceilings
anticipated. Conditions will likely be IFR/LIFR within the
heaviest rainfall during the morning hours tomorrow.
Southeast winds around 5-10 kt through the taf period. Possible
low level wind shear later tonight south of the greater capital district as we
will place this into the taf at this time for kpsf/kpou.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
the snow pack, while melting, remains in place across much of
eastern New York and western New England. The weather pattern
will remain unsettled late this weekend into early next week
with occasional rain and wintry mixed precipitation. Drier
weather is expected for the mid-week period.
an unsettled weather pattern will impact the Hydro service area
the next several days.
There is a potential for several rounds of precipitation into
early next week. Some of the precipitation will fall as a mix of
rain and freezing rain and transition to mainly rain for Monday
and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected for the mid-week period.
The latest mmefs forecast indicates a few locations going into
action stage by early next week, but confidence is not high for
potential of any flooding at this time. Some snow melt is likely
the next few days.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
New York...Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for nyz033-
Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for nyz082.
Vermont...Freezing Rain Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 am EDT
Monday for vtz013>015.