Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 191052
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
652 am EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
high pressure remains over the mid Atlantic region through
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming. The next cold
front is expected to impact the region early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
sfc hi pres sits invof local area through today as a trough
aloft (w/ possible scattered-broken ci) passes over the region and off
the coast. Starting out chilly this morning...but not
temperatures not as low as 24 hrs ago. Expecting abundant
sunshine once again today...W/ light mainly south-southwest winds and highs
70-75f...except u60s right near the coast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
sfc hi pres remains invof the local through Sat as ridge aloft
builds/reaches maximum amplitude. Other possible scattered-broken cirrus from
time to time...expecting sky clear W/ temperatures averaging above
normal. Lows tonight in the M-u40s inland...l50s at the
immediate coast. Highs Fri in the M-u70s...l70s right at the
coast. Lows Fri night in the u40s-around 50f inland...to the
l-m50s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat again in the
M-u70s...l70s right at the coast.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
sfc high pressure slides off the New England coast Sat night and
continues to retreat to the east into early next week. Ridge axis
associated with this feature will remain over the local area
through most of sun before moving offshore. Meanwhile, mid-
upper level ridge axis remains centered along the East Coast
from the mid Atlantic to the southeast through at least sun
before shifting ewd/offshore. A deep upper level trough spans
the length of the Mississippi River from the upper Midwest to
the Gulf Coast states sun... becoming separated from its parent
low (near wrn Hudson Bay in canada) by Sun night. Sfc cold front
linking the separated upper lows to cross the Midwest sun/Sun
night, Ohio Valley Mon/Mon night, and eventually cross the mid
Atlantic region Tue/Tue night. Overall forecast is dry until Mon
into Tue night with lingering showers possible Wed.
Thunderstorms may also be possible Mon aftn based on current
arrival of precip, however this could change if the upper trough
digs deeper and delays onset of precip into Mon night.
Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal Sat-Mon
night. Expect highs in the 70s. Lows will warm from the lower
50s most areas Sat night (mid- upper 50s beaches) to the lower
60s by Mon night. Highs closer to normal (69-75f) on Tue with
widespread rain present. A much colder Canadian airmass moves
into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night. Decent
cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will
likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower
to fall/respond. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to lower 50s
inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs Wed
around 5-10 degrees below normal with readings in the lower 60s
inland and in the mid 60s far southeast Virginia/coastal NE NC.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
sfc hi pres remains over/near the area into sun. An upper
trough passes through the region through this evening then off
the coast tonight. VFR/mainly sky clear through the 12z taf period
and beyond (through the weekend). A cold front is expected to
impact the region early next week.
a large area of high pressure will continue to impact our weather
pattern today. Light winds (5-10 knots) and benign seas (generally
around a foot over the Bay, 2-3 feet over the ocean) are anticipated
today. A weak cold front swings through the waters on Friday morning
with a wind shift to the northwest and an increase in speed to 10 to
15 knots. The Bump in winds will only be temporary as strong surface
high reestablishes its control over the region for Saturday and
Sunday with a return to benign conditions over area waters.
The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not
come until early next week as a strong cold front slowly moves
across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Expect an increase in
southerly winds ahead of the front and strong northwesterly winds
behind the front.