Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 290000
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
800 PM EDT sun may 28 2017
a frontal boundary will linger near the Virginia North Carolina
border tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest on
Memorial Day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
current analysis indicating surface low pressure over the Great
Lakes, extending southeast into the local area with some weak surface
low pressure reflection along the coast of southeast Virginia and
northeast NC. Shortwave energy aloft has pushed well offshore
over past few hrs and airmass is only marginally unstable
(greater instability resides across southern NC and sc). While
pops have been raised a little, to likely through around 02z
across the northwest with another area of high chance (40-50%) into
south central and Southside VA, the threat for any strong tstms
appears very unlikely now. May see a few isolated tstms this
evening but decided to update the severe weather potential statement to remove the mention of
strong/severe tstms. Near term models and hrrr reflectivity suggest
the showers diminish in coverage later tonight with just
variable cloudiness and genly dry conditions overnight. Low
levels are already rather saturated and winds will be light
enough to support patchy fog and/or low stratus overnight as
well. Lows ranging through the 60s.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
a cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then
continue east Mon afternoon. Models continue to show drying over
most of the area...W/ the instability/moisture axis shifting southeast
into far southeast Virginia-NE NC...where additional rain showers/tstms are
possible in the afternoon/evening. Partly sunny on Memorial Day
with highs in the l-m80s north to the M-u80s S (70s along the
Atlantic beaches of the eastern shore).
12z/28 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes
aligned parallel to west-southwest flow aloft...stalling immediately north of
the region to perhaps pushing into the Maryland ern shore. The chc for
aftn/evening rain showers/tstms will diminish Tue...though will
continue W/ 20-40% pops in far srn and southeast Virginia/NE NC. Highs
Tue from the u70s-l80s at the coast to the m80s inland...after
morning lows ranging through the 60s.
Little change in conditions Tue night-Wed. Upper level trough
to sharpen into the ern Continental U.S....though a strong enough trigger
for widespread convective development (esp wed) ill-defined.
Maintaining pops (15-25%) in far southeast Virginia-NE NC...mainly Wed
afternoon. Lows Tue night in the 60s. Highs Wed in the u70s-
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the long term period beginning Wednesday night will start off mainly
dry with high pressure over the mid Atlantic states Thursday. The
high will merge with the Bermuda high pressure ridge. This will
promote a slight warming trend and an increase of moisture. A
frontal boundary will settle over northern portions of the mid
Atlantic states and help to trigger scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms over the region.
High temperatures will range from 80 to 85 but slightly cooler at
the beaches. Lows of 60 to 65 Thursday and Friday mornings warm to
the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
most of the strongest showers and thunderstorms have ended
across the County Warning Area but some scattered light showers remain to the
west. These showers are not expected to be significant and will
likely end after midnight as the airmass continues to become
more stable. A weak frontal boundary continues to lie just
south of the VA/NC border and has been the focus for most of
the showers/tstms that have occurred today. Some stratus and fog
will occur over the region bringing MVFR/IFR conditions during
the overnight. Expect sby to have the worst of the fog/stratus
conditions. Ric/phf/orf also expected to have some fog and
visibilities issues overnight with light NE flow. Guidance seems
favorable for ecg with mostly northwest wind.
Outlook...mostly VFR conditions expected Monday with a slight
chance of some afternoon/evening showers/tstms. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms southeast portions Tuesday. Otherwise
mainly dry weather is forecast through Thursday with only a
stray shower or thunderstorm possible. The chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms increase on Friday mainly in southern
Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Patchy fog or stratus
will be possible each morning within a few hours of sunrise.
late this aftn, weak low pressure was near the southeast Virginia/NE NC
border. That low will move east-northeast and out to sea tonight thru Mon.
A weak cold front will push acrs the area during Mon, then
washes out over the Carolinas during Tue. Another weak cold
front slides acrs the region Tue night into Wed morning, with
yet another cold front moving thru the waters Wed night. High
pressure will build over the waters then out to sea Thu into
Fri. Winds/waves/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria thru the
period. Variable direction winds will be 15 kt or less, with
waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft.