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fxus61 kakq 161136 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
636 am EST Mon Jan 16 2017

weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight.
A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. Low
pressure tracking east from the Great Lakes to New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Its associated cold front
pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
sfc hi pres (~1030mb) remains invof forecast area attm...will be sitting
over the region through today. Area of scattered -ra moving through
the forecast area now...and models trend toward a gradual dissipating of
that -ra through the morning hours. Cad will remain set up over
the forecast area today...and W/ considerable cloudiness...result in a
chilly day. Highs only in the l-m40s in VA/MD...u40s in NE NC.
Additional quantitative precipitation forecast through the morning hours averaging aob 0.10".


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
weak cad lingers tonight...keeping mainly cloudy conditions.
Little/no forcing for pcpn. Lows in the u30s to around 40f.

Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the southern Great Lakes on
Tue...lifting a warm front north through the local area. Winds
becoming S scour out the cad during the morning. Models
continue to trend toward another wet/dreary day though...W/ hi
chance-likely pops over the northern 1/2 of the forecast area...less rain
and lower pops but still mainly cloudy across the S. Temps
moderate but with all the clouds...highs likely do not get out
of the 50s (will maintain l60s far S for now). Cold front passes
through Wed...and with deeper mixing and west-northwest flow in low
levels...should see some breaks in the clouds and a warm day
with highs at least in the 60s. Showers will be most likely
across the east and southeast where drier air is slower to arrive.


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the long term period begins Wednesday night with the expectation
of above normal temperatures. There is some uncertainty with the
details of precipitation. Plenty of Pacific moisture will swish across
the Continental U.S. And an upper level ridge will briefly build over the
eastern part of the nation around Friday and Saturday.

A cold front and associated short wave move off to the southeast
Wednesday night with any showers ending that evening. Dry
weather is expected Thursday into early Friday. A short wave may
bring a few showers Friday and Friday night especially southern
portions with probability of precipitation set no higher than 30 percent. During the
weekend...a complex low pressure system and cutoff upper level
low develop in the plains states. Precipitation associated with this
system should stay to the west through Sunday.

Fairly consistent day to day temperatures are expected Thursday
through Sunday with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.


Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
area of -ra exiting southeast Virginia/coastal NE NC in the next couple of
hrs. Otrw...bkn-ovc ceilings (roughly 3-6kft) to continue into
tonight...except at sby where ceilings will average 8-15kft. Winds
will generally remain light/vrb through the forecast period.

Low (mainly high end mvfr) ceilings will prevail into early Tue as
a warm front approaches and moves through the area Tue. Some IFR
will be possible Mon night and early Tue. Conditions improve
late Tue through Wed but there will be a chance for showers Wed
as a cold front moves through. The weather improves once again
Thu and Fri as the cold front moves south of the area and high
pressure takes over from the north.


a frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high
pres centers over the mid Atlantic...eventually sliding offshore
this aftn. Sub-sca conditions for today with winds below 10 kt,
1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters.
A warm front lifts north through the area Tue, with winds
becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which
crosses the waters early Wed. Hi pres returns Thu. Sub-sca
conditions expected through this period.


Akq watches/warnings/advisories...



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