Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 221841
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
241 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017
Post-tropical cyclone Jose will continue to weaken as it
lingers off the New England coast through the weekend.
Meanwhile, high pressure will expand into the mid-Atlantic.
Hurricane Maria is forecast to move northward between the
offshore Atlantic waters and Bermuda through the early part of
Near term /through tonight/...
Post-tropical cyclone Jose continues to spin just off the coast
of southeast New England. A spoke of moisture rotating around the west
side of Jose has been responsible for a little extra cloud
cover around the local area today. However, this has not stopped
temps from reaching the mid 80s in most places with moderate
humidity levels. Expecting another warm evening with clouds
gradually diminishing overnight. Have inserted patchy fog into
some of the usual locations for early Saturday morning. Lows
tonight in the 60s to around 70.
Short term /Saturday through Monday/...
high pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our
weather pattern over the weekend, as ptc Jose weakens and
shifts a bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with
north-northeast flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Will have to keep and eye on Hurricane Maria which
will be moving north off the southeast coast by Sunday and Monday.
Right now Maria is expected to take a course similar to Jose,
keeping it well offshore. Highs Sat-Mon will generally be in the
mid 80s, except upper 70s at the beaches. Lows will range from
the lower 60s inland to upper 60s near the coast.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
hi pres sfc-aloft continues to weaken invof NE Continental U.S. Mon night
into Tue. Meanwhile...tropical cyclone Maria is expected to
track to (well?) East of the coastal Carolinas. Wx conditions Tue-
Thu remain dependent on the track of tropical cyclone Maria. A
track closer to the coast (than that of jose) would bring
increasing winds/pops...esp ern portions of forecast area...more to the east
would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now...generally
going W/ partly cloudy W/ low pops (e portions). Monitor
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center on Maria through
the weekend. A cold front is forecast to arrive late next week
(late Thu-Thu night)...resulting in cooler wx and possibly
Highs Tue in the u70s-l80s...Wed u70s-mid 80s...l-m80s Thu...in
the 70s Fri. Lows Mon-Wed nights mainly 65 to 70f...then Thu
night from the m50s northwest to the m60s southeast.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
high pressure over the mid Atlantic region will promote VFR
conditions and mostly light wind through the taf forecast
period. Mid/high clouds will tend to disspiate into this
evening. Patchy fog may develop early Saturday morning.
Outlook: generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of
patchy morning fog, are anticipated through early next week due
to the influence of high pressure over the region.
Post-tropical cyclone Jose remains centered southeast of Cape Cod
early this morning and is forecast to remain nearly stationary
through Saturday morning...before gradually pushing ewd through
Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located north-northeast of the Turks
and Caicos this afternoon and is forecast to track to the north-northwest
through Sat and then on a north track through Wed to about
equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda.
Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall
at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However...the Small Craft Advisory
for hazardous seas will continue...and will be extended to 22z
sun as energetic east-northeast swell will continue. Swell arrives from
Maria most likely beginning late this weekend and continuing
into next week. Scas for seas will likely be needed into early
next week. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps Maria
offshore during the early to middle portions of next week.
Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of
Maria. A further increase in seas is expected Monday through
Wednesday along with an increasing north wind Tue-Thu.
water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through
the weekend...but given that the swell is not as large as what
it has been...they should stay just below flood. Will need to
watch for additional flooding next week...especially in the
Bay...as the swell from Maria moves into the area.
High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through Sat as swell/nearshore waves will be
slow to subside.
Maryland...coastal flood advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday