Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS61 KAKQ 261309
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
909 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore the southeast coast through 
Monday. A weak frontal boundary over the Delmarva this morning 
lifts back to the north late today into Monday. A cold front 
crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated forecast for current conditions, weak sfc boundary
appears to be stalling from King William to the Middle 
Peninsula and on into the lower Bay. Onshore winds...and BKN-OVC
low stratus settling along and N of the boundary. Temperatures 
avg 45-50 F N of the boundary...while mild/mainly partly cloudy
conditions prevail elsewhere with readings in the mid 50s to 
lower 60s. Have adjusted highs down a few degrees on the eastern
shore with expectation that temperatures struggle through the
low-mid 50s this aftn and in the upper 40s/around 50 F coastal
eastern shore. Dense fog not expected there, but VSBYS of 1 to
2SM and perhaps some drizzle to prevail through early aftn.
Winds have just shifted to the NE at Norfolk Airport and Newport
News as well though the extent of low clouds there is more 
uncertain as will be highs this aftn (lowered hourly values
through the next few hrs but will still keep highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s as the winds are expected to gradually shift
back to the S/SE later in the aftn.


Later today, weakening low pressure (sfc-aloft) will continue 
to track NE toward the Great Lakes today...pushing a weak low 
level boundary from the W closer to the FA. Only SLGT forcing 
aloft w/ this system...which will likely limit pcpn coverage as 
it draws closer late this aftn. The maritime low level air will
be difficult/slow to dislodge invof NE portions of the FA into 
this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere...mild w/ VRB clouds. Upper 
level s/w brushes NW zones late and will have a 15-30% PoPs 
confined to the NW after 21Z. Highs likely stuck to upper
40s/lower 50s coastal eastern shore, and in the 50s in low 
clouds over the remainder of the eastern shore...60s across much
of the north/northeast zones W of the Bay from louisa to
Tappahannock, and in the low to mid 70s a little farther south in
central/srn VA- NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lows Sun night in the u40s-around 50F on the ern shore to the 
l-m50s elsewhere...w/ mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy SE
to mostly cloudy on the lower MD ern shore and along-W of I 95.

Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA
w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains
invof SE CONUS coast. VRB clouds Mon w/ PoPs mainly aob 20%,
though will have a small area of 30% PoPs across the far N
through midday. Highs should warm a few degrees compared to
Sunday...into the m-u70s over much of VA and interior NE NC to 
the u60s-l70s near the coast and over the eastern shore. Upper 
level ridging to keep it mainly dry and continued warm Mon night
with lows in the 50s. Upper level trough pushes into the area 
Tue as a sfc cold front passes by late. Continued warm w/ highs
well into the 70s to near 80F if rain holds off. There will be 
a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 
40-50% PoPs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure and assoc cold front will be pushing acrs the
region and off the coast Tue night...maintaining slgt chc or 
chc of showers. Dry wx expected for Wed thru most of Thu, as 
high pressure builds in fm the N. Chance for more showers and 
possible tstms then Thu night into at least the first part of 
Sat, as low pressure and another assoc cold front approaches and
moves acrs the region. 

Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wed, in the mid 50s to mid 60s
Thu and Fri, and in the 60s to lower 70s Sat. Lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s Tue night, in the lower to mid 40s Wed night
and Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc boundary has slid S through portions of the ern shore the
past several hours...w/ onshore winds and development of ST
invof SBY. The boundary currently making an attempt to make it 
SSW to RIC/PHF/ORF...though likely to stop there by mid/late
morning. Continued IFR CIGS/VSBYS expected invof SBY through 
this afternoon before potentially lifting (slowly). 

Mainly VFR conditions expected otherwise through the 12Z TAF 
period. Front approaches slowly from the W late today/tonight 
and may result in ISOLD SHRAS at RIC/SBY. Unsettled wx 
conditions will persist across the region through mid-week. Sub-
VFR conditions will be possible late overnight and into the 
early morning hours primarily due to low ceilings. Scattered 
showers becoming increasingly likely by Tue/Tue night. Periods 
of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of 
precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
Updated to increase wave heights to 3-4 ft a little farther S 
for coastal waters as boundary has slipped S to around Cape 
Charles Light with E/NE winds of ~15 KT (still doesn't appear
that any headlines will be needed). Otherwise, relatively 
benign marine conditions expected the next several days with no 
headlines anticipated. 

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the
eastern shore and mid Bay today, before lifting back north of 
that area tonight. Low pressure and its associated cold front 
will track from the srn Plains ENE and across the local area Tue
into early Wed morning. Other than winds turning to the E or SE
for today into this evening, expect SW or S winds 15 kt or less
tonight thru Tuesday.

As low pressure moves out to sea late Tue night thru Wed
morning, winds will turn to the NW then N arnd 10 kt or less.
High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and Thu, with 
NE winds 15 kt or less. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft thru midweek.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations