Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 261837
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
237 PM EDT Fri may 26 2017
a couple of upper level troughs will be crossing the region this
weekend...resulting in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front from the west will cross the local area Memorial
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
sfc hi pres will remain invof southeast Continental U.S. Through tonight.
Remaining breezy through early this evening (gusts to 20-30 mph)
then winds wane overnight. Scattered-broken cumulus across the forecast area this
afternoon expected to dissipate this evening...leaving mainly
sky clear for the rest of the night. Lows in the m50s-around 60f
inland to the l60s near the coast in Virginia/NE NC.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the west-southwest through
Sat morning. Models in decent consensus W/ the arrival of weak
short wave tracking into the forecast area by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination
of daytime heating and that short wave in west-northwest flow aloft will likely
result in at least scattered convective development. Will have pops
increasing to 30-50% over most of the forecast area (by after 20z/27). Storm Prediction Center
has outlooked wrn/central areas of forecast area in a slight risk...W/
remaining areas in a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show
ml cape values of 1000-1500 j/kg, W/ 30-40 kt of effective
shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Main threats will be
large hail and localized damaging winds. Partly-mostly sunny Sat
morning...then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs
from the M-u70s-around 80f on the Eastern Shore to the M-u80s
Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into sun. A weak sfc
boundary settles just S of the area (by sun morning). Another
short wave aloft expected to arrive late sun...which again combined W/
daytime heating likely results in (at least) scattered convective
development. Not as warm sun due to vrb clouds-becoming mostly
cloudy conditions. Lows Sat night mainly ranging through the
60s. Highs sun in the u60s-m70s at the coast to the M-u70s
Will continue to highlight possible strong to severe tstms in
severe weather potential statement for the weekend.
A break in the chances for shras/tstms after sun evening...into
Mon morning. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon
morning...then continue to the east Mon afternoon. Expecting
additional shras/tstms to accompany that frontal
passage...mainly Mon afternoon/evening. Otherwise...partly-
mostly cloudy Sun night-Mon. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Highs
Mon mainly in the l-m80s (except 70s at the beaches).
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
the somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the
baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the
area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on
Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the
mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over North Carolina on
Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday
across NE NC and south Virginia. High pressure builds across the
region for Tue night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected through the 18z taf period. Gusty west
winds to 20-25 kt will diminish this evening. Sct showers and
storms return for Saturday afternoon into early next week as the
pattern remains somewhat unsettled.
low pressure off the New Jersey coast will continue to move NE and away from
the area today. Meanwhile, another trof will rotate around this low.
Models continue to show a decent pressure gradient behind the
departing low through mid afternoon with diminishing winds by
evening. Thus, Small Craft Advisory headlines remain in place today for west-southwest winds
15-25 kts and 4-5 ft seas.
High pressure to the south builds into the region tonight and Sat
resulting in winds aob 15 kts, seas 2-3 ft. Flow becomes onshore
once again Sat night and sun as a frontal system stalls across the
region. Expect winds aob 15 kts, seas 3-4 ft. Sct aftrn / evening
tstrms will pose a threat to mariners this weekend as weak low
pressure tracks along the frontal boundary.
The start of the 2017 rip current season features a moderate threat
of rips along the lower Delmarva beaches with a low risk over Virginia
Beach and the northern Outer Banks.
previous onshore flow combined with high astro tides will continue
the elevated water levels through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning
expired but Cambridge very slow to drop below minor flooding levels
so issued an advisory through 12z. Otw, all statements / advisories
have expired. This afternoons high tide cycle is forecasted to be
low enough at most sites to remain below action stage. However,
tonights high tide cycle may required another round of statements
or advisories as levels will likely exceed action stage and approach
minor flooding thresholds once again.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for anz650-