Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kakq 181257 
afdakq

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
857 am EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure remains over the mid Atlantic region through
Friday and gradually slides offshore next weekend with
temperatures gradually moderating.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
update...frost advisory allowed to expire at 900 am. Dewpoints
have warmed at to above 35 degrees.

Previous discussion...
the current surface analysis depicts 1028mb high pressure
centered over the mid-Atlantic. A clear sky, calm conditions,
and a dry airmass have combined to produce ideal radiational
cooling conditions across most of the local area with
temperatures generally 35-40f from the Piedmont to east-central Virginia
and interior NE NC across to the lower Maryland ern shore. Farther se,
temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s for coastal southeast
Virginia/NE NC where a light north wind persists. The frost advisory for
the Piedmont remains on track, with some patchy possible to the
east of the advisory over rural portions of the interior coastal
plain. High pressure, surface and aloft will remain over the
region today producing very pleasant conditions with a sunny sky
and light wind. The airmass modifies and high temperatures
range form 65-70f.

&&

Short term /Thursday through Friday/...
surface high pressure remains over the area tonight as a trough
swings across the Great Lakes temporarily suppressing the
mid/upper high farther south across the Gulf Coast states.
Radiational cooling should again be rather ideal tonight with a
clear sky and calm conditions. Lows will be a few degrees higher
tonight ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s inland to the upper
40s/low 50s for coastal southeast Virginia.

The mid/upper high rebuilds across the region Thursday and
Friday and surface high pressure continues to prevail. Expect
sunny/clear and dry conditions to continue with a light wind.
Highs Thursday reach 70-75f as the airmass continues to modify.
By Friday, highs reach the mid 70s after morning lows in the
mid/upper 40 inland, to the low/mid 50s for coastal southeast Virginia/NE NC.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
high pressure gradually pushes off the coast over the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with sky conditions no
worse than partly sunny. Much disagreement in the models by the
first of next week with respect to the arrival of the next cold
front. European model (ecmwf) is much wetter than the GFS with its deeper trough
aloft and a potential sfc low developing along the coast. Will
show chance pops Monday/Tuesday, then another potential cool
down by the middle of next week. Highs Sat-Mon in the mid-upr
70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows Sat nite 50-60. Lows sun
nite in the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows Mon night in the upr 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

Aviation /13z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure is situated over the region early this morning.
The sky is clear and the wind is calm at most locations, with a
localized northerly wind of 5-10kt at ecg. Expect clear
conditions to continue today into tonight, with a light wind
today becoming calm tonight. High pressure will remain over the
region Thursday and Friday, and then gradually slide offshore
Saturday and Sunday. Mainly clear/sunny and dry conditions will
prevail with a light wind.

&&

Marine...
the latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered over
the region. Winds are primarily out of the northeast and range
from 5 to 10 knots over the waters. Seas are generally 2 to 4
feet and continue to decrease, waves over the Bay are 1 to 2
feet. The high pressure remains centered over the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend allowing light
winds/seas and an extended period of sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. A weak
front may try to move through the northern waters Friday
afternoon, briefly turning the winds to the northwest and
increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

Equipment...
the kakq radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for
radome repairs.

&&

Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...none.
Virginia...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...ajz/jdm
near term...ajz/bmd

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations