Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
1014 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017
a weak cold front will pass through the region overnight into
early Tuesday morning. The front will stall south of the region
across the Carolinas through the middle of the week. High
pressure builds into the mid Atlantic Tuesday before moving
moving offshore Wednesday. The next cold front passes through
the region on Friday.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
for the overnight, have adjusted pops to 20-40% for showers or
tstms over the lower Maryland ern shore based on latest radar and
models indicating best lift, moisture and energy moving acrs
this region with frontal boundary. Otherwise, mostly clear to
partly cloudy with lows near 70 or lower 70s in the Piedmont,
and lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
For Tuesday...the cold front stalls south of the region which will
allow for the continued chance for showers and thunderstorms across
far southern Virginia and northeast NC. Elsewhere, dry conditions and
mostly sunny skies are anticipated as high pressure influences the
weather pattern. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs ranging
from the mid/upper 80s across the north to near 90 south.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
short term period starts off Tue night with just a lingering small
chance of rain over far southeast areas during the evening hours with the
lingering frontal bndry sliding south of the area as high pres
builds over the NE states. Expect NE flow under a partly cloudy sky
with low temps mainly in the upr 60s/lwr 70s.
Mainly dry wx then for Tue with just a slight chance of an aftn
shra/tstm as sfc hi pres slides off the NE coast. High temps in the
mid 80s. Slight chance pops again for Thu ahead of an approaching
mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Return of sly
flow will allow for high temps near 90f.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
the preference in the long term is to lean toward the European model (ecmwf)
solution. This favors a slower cold fropa on Friday, followed by dry
wx prevailing this weekend into the first of next week as the front
dissipates to our south and a broad trough develops over the eastern
Continental U.S.. have solid chc pops (40-50%) on Friday with the fropa.
Limited chc pops (30-40%) to southern areas on Saturday, then dry
all areas next Sunday/Monday. Max temps through the long term will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Little to no
convection expected tonight although some isolated activity is
possible over the Piedmont. A weak cold front crosses the
region late tonight and into tomorrow morning shifting winds to
the west/northwest for Tuesday.
Outlook: there will the continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms across south central Virginia and NC on Tuesday, but VFR
conditions should dominate through this period. A weak cold front
pushes into the area for the mid week period.
SW winds 5-15 kt, except 15-20 kt off the NC obx currently ongoing
across the marine area. Seas 2-3 ft; waves 1-2 ft. A cold front to
the northwest slowly approaches through the evening then sags south through
the marine area overnight into tues morning. South-southwest winds 10-15kt
expected ahead of the front this evening, then as the front passes
overnight, expect winds to veer around to the north/northwest tues morning at
10-15 kt, but taking until 8-10am to do so off the NC obx. This
surge should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels tues morning, but some gusts to
20 kt may occur for a short time over the middle ches Bay. Seas 2-4
ft; waves 1-2 ft perhaps briefly up to 3 ft early tues.
Behind the front, winds are expected to become onshore tues aftn
into Wednesday, then become south-southeast again on Thursday. Seas 2-4 ft;
waves 1-2 ft. The next frontal boundary is expected Friday. SW winds
10-15 kt become north/northwest again Friday night/Saturday.
water levels will approach minor flood thresholds early Tuesday
morning around Bishops Head. Therefore...have issued a coastal
flood statement. Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain
below minor flood thresholds.