Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 220849
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
449 am EDT Fri Jun 22 2018
a frontal boundary located just north of the Virginia North
Carolina border early this morning, will gradually lift back
north as a warm front later today into Saturday morning. A cold
front will drop across the area Sunday night into Monday
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 450 am EDT Friday...
Early this morning, area of showers and a few tstms was pushing
east-northeast thru the County Warning Area. This activity was associated with shortwave
energy/lift along and north of the frontal boundary. This pcpn
will lift into nrn/NE counties thru the morning hrs, with a
break in the pcpn for the remainder of the area into this aftn.
Then, more showers and tstms will re-develop later this aftn
and evening and move north-northeast acrs the region, as the front lifts
nwrd thru the County Warning Area. Storm Prediction Center has portions of central and southeast Virginia in a
slight risk for severe tstms, due to increased low-level shear
possibly near the frontal boundary. So, the main threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, any stronger
storms could contain heavy rainfall, with localized flooding
possible. Warm and humid today with highs ranging FM the mid to
upper 70s NNE, to the mid to upper 80s S.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
as of 400 am EDT Friday...
The frontal boundary will lift north of the area Sat morning.
The highest pops will shift to the nrn counties late tonight
into Sat morning. South-southwest winds will pick up acrs the region Sat
aftn, helping to warm temps into the upper 80s to lower 90s over
most areas. A shortwave trough is progged to cross the region
in the aftn/evening that could touch off a line of mainly
diurnally driven tstms. A sfc trough/weak cold front will move
acrs the area late Sat night thru Sun morning, with an actual
cold front then dropping acrs the region Sun night into Mon
morning. Have maintained low end pops (20-30%) with the trough
overhead possibly kicking off isolated to widely sctd
showers/tstms. Highs on sun in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 340 PM EDT Thursday...
A potent shortwave (coupled with an area of surface low pressure) is
still projected to dive southeastward from Canada to the
northeastern US on late Sunday into Monday. This system will bring a
chance for showers/T-storms to the region as a cold front moves
through the County Warning Area late Sunday into Monday. Both the latest 21/12z GFS
and European model (ecmwf) move the frontal boundary south of the County Warning Area by Monday
afternoon. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will overspread much of
the region (with the greatest coverage south/east of the Richmond
metro) Sunday night-Monday am. GFS shows some re-development across
southeast Virginia/NE NC Monday afternoon/evening. The European model (ecmwf) and CMC are
forecasting dry weather for the entire County Warning Area on Monday. Decided to
maintain chance pops Sunday night-Monday due to the scattered nature
of the T-storms. Behind the cold front, high pressure builds in
north of the area on Tuesday and moves offshore on Wednesday. This
will bring drier and cooler conditions to the region Monday night
through Wednesday. Moisture returns to the region as an area of
surface low pressure tracks to our north late next week, leading
to shower/T-storm chances on Thursday and Friday.
Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s on Monday with low-mid 80s
expected on Tuesday. Expect a slow warming trend from Wednesday
through the end of next week (highs back to around 90 by thursday)
after the area of high pressure moves offshore. Expect morning lows
between 70-75 on Monday cooling into the low-mid 60s for
Tuesday/Wednesday. Lows warming to between 66-72 on Thursday.
Aviation /09z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 155 am EDT Friday...
Early this morning, a frontal boundary was laying west to east
near the Virginia/NC border. This boundary will gradually lift nwrd
acrs the area today into Sat morning, then lifts well north of
the region Sat aftn, as low pressure moves FM the Ohio Valley NE
into the Great Lakes. As a result, there will continue to be at
least chc to likely pops for showers or tstms into late tonight.
So, expect mainly MVFR ceilings at ric/sby/phf during this time
period with IFR ceilings possible thru this morning at ric and phf,
and into Sat morning at sby. Expect mainly MVFR or VFR ceilings at
Just sctd aftn/evening showers/tstms will be possible Sat and
sun. Drier conditions potentially arrive early next week.
as of 330 am EDT frisday...
Went ahead and extended the sca's for the rest of the ches Bay
(except mouth) based on latest wind gusts aoa 20 kts on back
side of the frontal boundary located along the James River to
orf/Virginia Beach. This boundary progged to meander across the waters
today before lifting back north as a warm front late tonight and
Sat morning. Expect diminishing winds once the onshore east-southeast winds
shift back to the south. This could be as early as this afternoon
across the southern ches Bay but kept the headline up through 20z
due to the uncertainity. Seas slow to respond to the onshore winds,
bust expect them to reach arnd 5 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Kept the Small Craft Advisory ending time over the coastal waters as late
tonight as I expect a several hr period of seas blo 5 ft Sat morn
before bumping up again later in the day.
The southerly flow returns Saturday as the warm front lifts
north of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory may once again be
needed Sat night due to a strong south-southwest push and seas arnd 5 ft.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Saturday for anz650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for anz631-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for anz630.