Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 251937
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
337 PM EDT Thu may 25 2017
unsettled conditions will continue through this evening as an
upper level trough crosses the local area from the west.
Conditions improve on Friday. Warmer temperatures and chance
for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the west on Memorial Day.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
dry slot continuing to fill up W/ broken cumulus and developing (sct)
tstms as an upper level trough enters the region...steepening
lapse rates. Forecast area remains under marginal risk svr from Storm Prediction Center...main
threats from any stms will be gusty winds/hail. Otherwise...vrb
clouds/partly sunny into this evening. For the
overnight...becoming partly cloudy S W/ any lingering rain showers
waning...mostly cloudy north W/ possible additional isolated-scattered rain showers.
Lows from the m50s west to l60s at the immediate coast.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
other than possible isolated shras and vrb clouds far north-northeast locations
early Fri as upper level low is slow to reach New England...drying
out W/ deep layered west-northwest flow. Expecting a return of temperatures
back to or above normal W/ partly-mostly sunny conditions. Highs
mainly 80 to 85f...except u70s at (most of) the beaches.
Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the west-southwest Fri night
into Sat. Models in a bit better consensus W/ the arrival of
weak short wave tracking into the forecast area by Sat afternoon. Combination of
daytime heating and that short wave in west-northwest flow aloft will likely result
in at least scattered convective development. Will have pops
increasing to 30-50% over most of the forecast area. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked
wrn/central areas of forecast area slight risk svr...other areas marginal
svr. Otherwise...partly cloudy Fri night- Sat morning...then
becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the u50s northwest to
the low 60s southeast. Highs Sat from the M-u70s- around 80f on the
Eastern Shore to the M-u80s inland.
Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into sun. Another short wave
aloft expected to arrive during sun...which again combined W/
daytime heating likely results in scattered convective development.
Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly sunny sun W/
highs mainly in the l-m80s (70s at the beaches).
Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in severe weather potential statement for the
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the
baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the
area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on
Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the
mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over North Carolina on
Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday
across NE NC and south Virginia. High pressure builds across the
region for Tue night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
a line of showers and thunderstorms over the Piedmont will move
eastward late this afternoon, affecting ric btwn 20-22z. The storms
may affect phf and orf after 21z, and sby around 22z. Some gusty
winds and small hail are possible with these storms, as well as
brief IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should dominate as
the associated cold front passes through this evening allowing for
drying conditions under westerly flow.
Friday should be dry with VFR conditions, then sct showers and
storms return for Saturday into early next week as the pattern
remains somewhat unsettled.
latest sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pres across the
mid Atlc - Ohio Valley with its main cold front already pushing
offshore. SW flow continues tonight behind the front, and still
looks to be enough of a gradient for 15-20 kt winds over most
waters...so headlines over the Bay/sound/lwr James extend
through at least Fri morning. The Small Craft Advisory over the ocean is for seas
up to 5 ft out 20 nm. Weak high pres then builds in for late
Fri/Fri night leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca
conditions expected to continue into the weekend.
the continued onshore flow combined with high astro tides will
result in elevated water levels through Friday. The south-southeast winds
continue to pile up the water across the middle ches Bay so
based off the latest data, went ahead and extended the coastal
flood advisory for the Bay Side of the lower MD Eastern Shore
for the next high tide cycle. Also issued coastal flood statements
for the VA Northern Neck and Atlantic coastal waters from oxb-Cape
Charles for levels approaching minor flood levels. See cfwakq
for more details.
Maryland...coastal flood advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
NC...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Friday for ncz102.
Virginia...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for vaz525.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Friday for anz638-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for anz630>632-634-
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for anz633.