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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
344 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Synopsis...
high pressure prevails off the southeast coast today as a weak
front slowly drops into the area. The front then lingers across
the region through most of the week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
another hot and humid day in store for today with hi pressure
remaining off the se coast. A heat advisory is in effect for all
areas other than the lower Maryland Eastern Shore with aftn temps in
the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s leading to heat indices
in the 105-110 range. As for rain chances...weak perturbations in
the flow aloft along with a cold frnt dropping towards the area
and a thermal trough still over the region will allow for chances
for aftn tstms everywhere. The threat of severe wx will be low
(marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will
be possible in any tstm.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
shra/tstm chcs continue tonight as the aforementioned front sags
south across the area. Best support for tstms shifts towards the
coast after midnite. Still warm and humid with lows only in the
mid/upr 70s.

Westerly flow aloft will allow for the boundary to stall over the
region Wednesday. Enough moisture and support for chc pops
(30-40%) across the area. Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a
partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be highest across se Virginia/NE NC
with heat indices approaching 105.

Light westerly flow aloft allows the frontal boundary to linger
across the fa Wed nite. Latest model data suggests the boundary
lifts back north as a warm front thurs / thurs nite to near the
Mason-Dixon line in response to a series of weak disturbances
progged to track east along it. Data also shows a lingering sfc trof
in Lee of mts. Given the available low level moisture...expect enuf
triggers across the region to carry chc pops through the period.
Continued humid with lows both nites in the mid-upr 70s. Highs thurs
in the low-mid 90s. Dewpoints will be highest across se Virginia/NE NC
with heat indices approaching 105.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
stacked high pressure over the southeast coast will briefly
breakdown and WSW flow aloft will persist Thu night through
Sat night...followed by a return to more zonal/westerly flow
aloft on sun. A series of weather disturbances will pass
across the region as a thermal boundary/Lee trough remains
over the area. A cold front is expected to approach the region
on sun. Overall, this weather pattern will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the
forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each
passing model run and will therefore maintain more broad brushed
pop grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints generally
in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample
moisture present across the area. Therefore, anticipated impacts
from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall due to
weak steering flow aloft (20kt average) and strong gusty winds.
Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the
lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around
100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far southeast Virginia/NE NC reaching
105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in
the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches.

&&

Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure will remain off the southeast coast. A surface trough
will extend from northeast to southwest across the mid Atlantic
states ahead of a weak cold front. The front will reach central
Virginia and the lower Maryland Eastern Shore late Tuesday. The
front will remain in the general vicinity through the rest of the
week.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected today with scattered to broken
mid and high level clouds. Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected each day through Saturday.

&&

Marine...
generally benign marine conditions expected this week. Winds over
the Bay this morng are avgg ~15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt
so issued a marine weather statement there. The winds will
decrease thru the morng hours as a weak frntal bndry drops into
the area...with winds becoming vrb by this aftn. Winds aob 10 kt
will continue tngt into Wed with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3
ft seas over coastal waters.

Outlook...
warm front lifts north of the waters by thurs keeping a light S-southeast
flow across the region. Expect winds aob 10 kts with seas arnd 2
feet.

&&

Climate...
Norfolk reached 101 degrees on Monday. This is the first time that
it reached 100 degrees or higher on two consecutive days since
July 22-23, 2011.

No records have been set so far during the current heat spell.

Records Mon (7/25)

* ric: 105 (2010) actual high 96
* orf: 105 (2010) actual high 101
* sby: 100 (2010) actual high 95
* ecg: 97 (1949) actual high 94

Tuesday will see highs well into the 90s. Forecast highs are below
the record highs for the 26th but the record of 97 at ecg appears
to be the one closest to being threatened.

Records Tue (7/26)

* ric: 100 (1940)
* orf: 100 (1940)
* sby: 102 (1940)
* ecg: 97 (1949)

&&

Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
ncz012>017-030>032-102.
Virginia...heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mas
near term...mas
short term...jdm/mas/mpr
long term...bmd
aviation...mas/lsa
marine...mas/mpr
climate...

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