Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 260122
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
922 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017
a cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon and
night...bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
Surface high pressure will push offshore Wednesday and Thursday
with warmer temperatures for the latter half of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
clouds associated with upr level trof steadily moving east and
should exit the area / thin out after midnight as drier air
filters in from the west. Lows in the M-u50s northwest to M-u60s southeast.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
northern plains upper trough will amplify as it drops across
the Great Lakes Monday and Monday night...W/ a lead S/W dropping
across into the mountains. This feature will push the secondary
cold front toward the local area Monday...dropping across the
local area late Mon/Mon night. As a result...conditions become
partly cloudy. Could see a quick shower or two along the coastal
plain. However, given dry antecedent airmass, expecting little
more than some increasing clouds and will keep pops in silent
range for now. Highs 80-85f (u70s at the beaches).
Even cooler behind the secondary front. After a cool, pleasant
night Monday night with lows in the 50s to m60s...then highs in
the u70s-l80s Tue. A second...stronger S/W aloft will drop
across the local area in northwest flow aloft Tuesday. Despite dry
airmass...this feature could prove strong enough to squeeze out
a quick shower or thunderstorm...mainly over southeast Virginia-NE NC where
slightly better moisture may spread NE ahead of the trough axis.
Given better model agreement with the 25/12z suite of models, we
have increased into chance range for Tuesday afternoon.
Sfc high pressure finally builds into/over the region Tue
night- Wed providing dry weather and comfortable conditions
under a mainly clear sky. Lows in the low to mid 50s inland to
the low 60s at the coast. Highs Wed 80-85f...mid to upper 70s at
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
long term period will feature generally dry wx with near to
slightly above normal temps through the period. Sfc high pres
slides offshore Wed night into Thu allowing for S/SW flow to
develop across the mid Atlc and temps to Max out in the mid-upr
80s Thu. Similar conditions into Fri with a mostly sunny sky and
high temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s. Next chance of rain
arrives Sat/Sat night with an approaching cold front. With this
several days out will cap pops at 30% for now, but may raise
pops for this in future updates if the timing holds.
Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions across the region at 00z. A weak front lies
across the NC coast. A few isolated showers are possible along
and south of this boundary but generally some mid and high
clouds will affect the County Warning Area through midnight then mostly
clearing. Dry conditions are expected for Monday.
Outlook: VFR conditions are likely for much of the work week as
high pressure builds over the region. A few showers may be
possible on Tuesday as a reinforcing cold front moves through
no marine headlines necessary over the next several days. Winds
remain under 10 kt Mon with a weak trough of low pres in the
vicinity. A weak cold front pushes offshore Mon night into Tue
morning, but with weak cold air advection expect north/northwest winds behind the front only
up to 10-15 kt. Sfc high pres returns for the middle of this week
leading to aftn sea breezes and waves over the Bay only 1-2 ft with
seas over cstl wtrs 2-3 ft. Next low pres system affects the area
over the weekend.