Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 230845
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
445 am EDT Sat Jun 23 2018
a warm front will lift north of the area this morning. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late Sunday, then drop
across the area Sunday evening into Monday morning. High
pressure will build in from the north Monday afternoon into
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 430 am EDT Saturday...
Early this morning, weak low pressure over ern Virginia was slowly
pulling a warm front nwrd thru the County Warning Area. As of 400 am, only
isolated showers were occurring over extrm southeast Virginia and NE NC.
Otherwise, the sky ranged FM partly cloudy to cloudy with areas
of fog and stratus. Temps ranged FM the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Expect only an isolated shower or tstm thru midday, as the warm
front lifts north of the region and winds become south-southwest and
increase a bit over the entire area. A Lee side trough
developing, combined with the approach of shortwave energy and
moderate instability, will then result in more showers and tstms
forming this aftn into this evening. This activity will move
ewrd and offshore late this evening into the overnight hrs.
Storm Prediction Center has portions of cntrl and ern VA, and the lower Maryland ern shore
in a slight risk for severe tstms this aftn into this evening.
The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
The sky will become partly to mostly sunny today with highs
ranging FM the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
as of 430 am EDT Saturday...
Very warm and still rather humid on sun, as winds will be more
west-southwest in advance of an actual cold front approaching FM the northwest.
Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Isolated to sctd showers and tstms (20-40% pops) will be
possible FM late sun aftn into Mon morning, as the front pushes
into and acrs the region. Lows Sun night will range FM the upper
60s to mid 70s. Mon will be dry and slightly less humid, as high
pressure starts to build in FM the north. Highs will mainly be
in the mid to upper 80s.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 340 PM EDT Friday...
A ridge of high pressure builds in from the north on Tuesday as
a cold front and rain exit well to the south. This will provide
drier and cooler weather with afternoon highs in the low to
middle 80s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will aid in making
Tuesday even more pleasant...much different than the upper
70/near 80 degree dewpoints we have been experiencing.
Mid-level troughing arrives as high pressure moves offshore
Wednesday, and the GFS tries to spark showers and thunderstorms over
the northwest corner of our County Warning Area in the afternoon. The Euro keeps wet
weather slightly further west. Like most rain events this time of
year, these appear to be diurnally driven, dissipating by late
evening. Highs Wednesday will return to the upper 80s. Models
diverge in solutions regarding timing/placement of rain Thursday and
Friday, but expect better chances mid-morning Thursday and again
Temperatures by Thursday will warm into the lower 90s and push the
mid 90s by Friday. With southerly winds in play, expect muggy
conditions and nighttime temperatures in the lower 70s.
Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 210 am EDT Saturday...
Early this morning, weak low pressure was over southeast Virginia along a
warm front. That low will lift NE thru this morning, pulling the
warm front north of the area. Until the front lifts north of the
region, expect IFR ceilings to continue at ric and sby, and possibly
MVFR/IFR ceilings at phf. Then, increasing south-southwest winds will improve
conditions/ceilings to VFR everywhere by late this morning. More
sctd showers/tstms will be possible late this aftn into this
evening, as a sfc trough/weak cold front pushes into the region
FM the west. An actual cold front will then cross the area sun
evening into Mon morning, with isolated to sctd showers or tstms
possible. Drier conditions arrive early next week.
as of 300 am EDT Saturday...
Marie fog developing along the Eastern Shore beaches as the flow
remain onshore ahead of the warm frontal passage. Thus, went
ahead and hoisted a marine dense fog advisory thru 12z for now.
Latest msas has a frontal boundary nearly stationary across the
James River and southern ches Bay. Winds have been just about every
direction possible over the past several hours due to the numerous
rounds of shwrs/tstms. The boundary is progged to lift north as a
warm front today allowing winds to become south-southeast most areas as the day
progresses. Speeds remain blo 20 kts, so no Small Craft Advisory for winds expected.
However, seas across the northern coastal waters will avg 4 to 6 ft
(highest out near 20 nm) through tonight so went ahead and extended
the Small Craft Advisory there mainly for seas thru 10z sun. Despite the southerly
wind direction, wna has backed off a bit on seas so held off on
any sca's there due to the lower confidence.
A cold front will move across the waters Sun night, shifting winds
to the north by Mon, NE Mon nite then east-southeast Tue. No real big push of
cold air seen attm so kept winds/seas blo Small Craft Advisory levels for now.
river Flood Warning in effect for the Rivanna at Palmyra. The level
peaked at 19.72 ft and is now beginning to drop. See flsakq for
details. A Flood Warning is also in effect for the North Anna and
upper Pamunkey rivers.
Bishops Head and Lewisetta peaked with levels just above minor
flooding overnight with several other points reaching action stage.
No issues expected with the early high tide cycle today as it will
be the lower of the two, but Bishops Head may reach minor flooding
once again with tonights high tide around 03z with several other
points reaching action stage. Levels are progged between 1 to 1.5 ft
A moderate rip current risk today along the Eastern Shore beaches
with low risk at Virginia Beach and the northern ob.
ric ended up with 7.61 inches of rain Friday. See rerric for details.
This is the second all time daily rainfall record at ric. The all-
time daily rainfall record at ric is 8.79 inches set on August 12,
1955 associated with hurricane connie.
In addition, orf set a new daily rainfall record of 2.28 inches Friday.
See rerorf for details.
Marine...dense fog advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for anz650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for anz650-652.