Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 200814
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
314 am EST Sat Jan 20 2018
high pressure slides off the southeast coast through the
weekend. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
sfc hi pres invof nrn Florida attm slides slowly off the southeast coast
today...providing SW winds and a near copy of conditions as Fri
(except temps may 3-7 degs f higher). Other than few/scattered
cirrus...sky clear and highs from the l-m50s near the Bay/ocean and on the
ern shore to the u50s-around 60f inland.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
weak upper level trough slides across the southeast states and off the
coast tonight-sun as ridging aloft dominates from the Tennessee-Ohio
valleys to the mid-Atlantic states. Potential for patchy fog late
tonight/early sun...otherwise scattered-broken clouds (averaging out
mostly sunny). NAM has a bit of a cooldown sun...generally
leaned toward the higher guidance (closer to continuity). 00z/20
GFS coming more in line W/ recent (and slower) European model (ecmwf) runs wrt
to next front approaching from the west Mon. South-southwest flow Mon keeps
mild wx over the region W/ partly cloudy conditions.
Lows tonight from the u20s-m30s. Highs sun in the l-m50s on the
ern shore to the u50-around 60f elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly
in the M-u30s. Highs Mon 55-60f near the Bay/ocean and on the
ern shore to 60-65f for most other locations.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a storm system tracking across the southern Great Lakes Monday
will push its attendant cold front across the local area late
Mon night through midday Tue. As stated above...the new GFS a
bit slower (closer to ecmwf) wrt timing front (and associated
shras) through the forecast area. Have high chc to likely pops for most of
the area during the 06z-17z Tue period, then pcpn moving out of
the entire area by 00z Wed. The remainder of the week should be
Lows Mon night mainly in the low/mid 40s. Highs Tue in the low 50s
on the ern shore to the 55-62 elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the low/
mid 30s. Highs Wed in the mid 40s on the ern shore to the upr 40s to
mid 50s elsewhere. Lows Wed night from the upr 20s north-northwest to the
low/mid 30s southeast. Highs ranging through the 40s on Thu, then mid 40s
to mid 50s on Fri.
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions continue through the 06z taf period as sfc hi
pres to the S dominates. Light SW wind tonight increase to arnd
10 kts Sat. Sfc hi pres settles off the southeast coast sun and Mon
W/ sky clear and dry conditions continuing. A cold front crosses the
region Monday night bringing a chc of showers. Hi pres returns
generally benign conditions over the waters through the weekend as
high pressure dominates the weather pattern. South/southwest winds
increase today with a slightly increasing pressure gradient. Expect
S-SW winds around 10 to 20 knots over the coastal waters this
afternoon and 10 to 15 knots over the Bay/rivers. Winds diminish
tonight into Sunday and briefly become N-NW. Winds become S-SW
around 10 knots by Sunday afternoon. A cold front approaches the
region from the west Monday night then crosses the water on Tuesday.
There are some timing issues that still need to be worked out
amongst the models with respect to whether the front passes first
thing in the morning or in the afternoon. Either way, expect Small Craft Advisory
conditions to be possible Tuesday with the fropa.