Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 260202
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
1002 PM EDT Thu may 25 2017
low pressure will move off to the northeast of the region
overnight, with improving conditions on Friday. Warmer
temperatures and chance for showers and thunderstorms will
return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the
west on Memorial Day.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
current analysis indicating sfc low pressure centered over
southern NJ, with upper level low hanging back over
western/central PA. Some scattered convection still pushing
through far NE sections of the cwa, with mainly dry conditions
elsewhere though will keep ~15% pop going through midnight with
a few spotty light showers still possible. Overnight...as drier
air continues to filter into the area and upper cold pool slides
farther off to the north/NE, skies will avg partly cloudy most areas
(more clouds linger over the far n). Lows from the mid 50s west to
low 60s at the immediate coast.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
other than possible isolated shras and vrb clouds far north-northeast locations
early Fri as upper level low is slow to reach New England...drying
out W/ deep layered west-northwest flow. Expecting a return of temperatures
back to or above normal W/ partly-mostly sunny conditions. Highs
mainly 80 to 85f...except u70s at (most of) the beaches.
Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the west-southwest Fri night
into Sat. Models in a bit better consensus W/ the arrival of
weak short wave tracking into the forecast area by Sat afternoon. Combination of
daytime heating and that short wave in west-northwest flow aloft will likely result
in at least scattered convective development. Will have pops
increasing to 30-50% over most of the forecast area. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked
wrn/central areas of forecast area slight risk svr...other areas marginal
svr. Otherwise...partly cloudy Fri night- Sat morning...then
becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the u50s northwest to
the low 60s southeast. Highs Sat from the M-u70s- around 80f on the
Eastern Shore to the M-u80s inland.
Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into sun. Another short wave
aloft expected to arrive during sun...which again combined W/
daytime heating likely results in scattered convective development.
Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly sunny sun W/
highs mainly in the l-m80s (70s at the beaches).
Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in severe weather potential statement for the
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the
baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the
area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on
Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the
mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over North Carolina on
Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday
across NE NC and south Virginia. High pressure builds across the
region for Tue night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions
Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/...
widespread showers and thunderstorms have mostly ended over the
County Warning Area except for the Eastern Shore where it should end before
midnight. A few scattered showers still linger over portions of
central VA and NC but should be ended in another hour or so.
Winds are mostly southeast-SW 10-15 kt and gusty. The winds will
diminish inland but will likely be 10-20 kt near the coastal
areas. VFR conditions will take hold tonight as drier weather
moves into the region.
Friday should be dry with VFR conditions, then sct showers and
storms return for Saturday into early next week as the pattern
remains somewhat unsettled.
latest sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pres across the
mid Atlc - Ohio Valley with its main cold front already pushing
offshore. SW flow continues tonight behind the front, and still
looks to be enough of a gradient for 15-20 kt winds over most
waters...so headlines over the Bay/sound/lwr James extend
through at least Fri morning. The Small Craft Advisory over the ocean is for seas
up to 5 ft out 20 nm. Weak high pres then builds in for late
Fri/Fri night leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca
conditions expected to continue into the weekend.
previous onshore flow combined with high astro tides will
result in elevated water levels through Friday. Have issued
several coastal flood products to account for this. See cfwakq
for more details.
Maryland...coastal flood advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for mdz024-
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 am EDT Friday for mdz021>023.
Virginia...coastal flood advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for vaz099-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for anz630>632-634-
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for anz633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Friday for anz638-656-658.