Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak67 pajk 261327
Southeast Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska
527 am akdt Fri may 26 2017
Synopsis...an area of high pressure persists over the eastern
Gulf through Saturday. A weather front moves north across the
central Gulf Saturday.
Short term.../Friday through Saturday/ weather conditions will
improve early today leading into a favorable weather conditions
later today and tomorrow. Currently a few showers are affecting
parts of the northern Panhandle from Yakutat to Juneau, however,
shower activity will diminish early this morning. Another concern
early this morning is fog which is possible across most the
Panhandle due to the high amounts of surface moisture present from
the recent rains. As time progresses this morning conditions
improve with the afternoon bringing partly cloudy skies to the
Panhandle as a whole later this afternoon. Sunniest areas expected
along the inner southern Panhandle.
A pleasant day is in the forecast for Southeast Alaska Saturday.
Not much significant weather is expected beyond a chance of fog
during the early morning hours. Temperatures make a return to the
mid to upper 60s. The only exception is Yakutat which could see
some rain associated with the front over the central Gulf late
Most significant changes in the short term were made over the
central Gulf tomorrow increasing winds and pops associated with
the front. Used the NAM and GFS for primary forecast guidance.
Long term.../Saturday night through Thursday/ as of 10 PM
Thursday. Generally only a few small changes to the forecast in
the mid to later time frames. The most significant change over
the weekend was the the idea that the ridge axis has been moved
about 150 miles eastward to lie more over the Panhandle than
rather off shore. The result for Saturday night and Sunday for the
coastal waters is that northwest winds along the outer coast is
now a southerly or becoming a lighter west for the marine area
west of Prince of Wales Island.
Forecast solution from wpc, which is what was being used for
minor changes into midweek was for the ridge of higher pressure to
persist along the Panhandle/coastal mountain range while a broad
area of low pressure develops and moves into the southwestern Gulf
of Alaska. The flow about this will be trying to spread some
moisture and rain into the eastern half of the Gulf of Alaska
though it may take until Wednesday before the precipitation does
so with a frontal band about the western Gulf low.
The weekend ridge/area of high pressure is not as substantial as
some of the thoughts in the previous forecast, and it is being
moved northward or being weakened. As a result the threat of a
widespread marine deck with the low clouds and fog bank are
lessened at least for the main Gulf waters. However the high
pressure will take the marine deck that is in the eastern Pacific
waters that is being maneuvered to the British Columbia coast
late Saturday and start moving that north to be approaching the
Dixon Entrance area later Sunday into Memorial Day. This may end
up being pushed northward early part of next week and could lower
the temperatures there for the first half of the week.
For now left the highs in 60s to near 70 for Panhandle which are
being supported by a warm layer of air that is being advected
north. Expect to see the 850 mb temperatures to rise 5 to 10
degrees c between Friday and Sunday with 850 temperatures from 4
to 10 c by Sunday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for pkz022.