Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak67 pajk 211302
Southeast Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska
502 am akdt Thu Jun 21 2018
Short term...through Friday night...a low pressure system
located across the central Gulf will move northward today. A few
short waves will move into the Panhandle. The combined effects of
these systems will result in atmospheric moisture being advected
across then Panhandle today. Therefore cloudiness and chances for
rain showers will increase across the Panhandle today and tonight.
Rain chances will continue across the Panhandle at times through
Patchy to areas of fog have developed across some areas this
morning, primarily coastal areas. The fog will dissipate later
Afternoon high temperatures through Friday will be cooler than
the past few days with increasing clouds and increasing chances
Winds will generally remain light to moderate except for small
craft winds occurring across northern Lynn Canal Thursday and
A high pressure ridge will build just offshore of the Panhandle
Friday then weaken and retreat southward Friday night.
Only minor changes were made to the current forecast as current
models generally echo previous model runs. The GFS model was used
for any changes made to the forecast.
Long term.../ Saturday to Thursday / a closed low in an upper
level trough will be moving northeast from the north central
Pacific into the southeast Gulf of Alaska off roughly Prince of
Wales Island or Dixon Entrance by Sunday afternoon. The low
weakens and then moves inland by Monday. The upper level flow
pattern looks to continues to move in a zonal like pattern though
mainly south of the Gulf to the Pacific northwest or British
Columbia coast. Various models solutions hint of a ridge over the
Gulf Monday night to Tuesday night. They also agree that there
will be a couple of upper level lows over the Bering Sea to
russian far east, but not exactly where by Tuesday night. The wpc
solution received this morning is a middle of the Road solution
and quite usable. Most of the current forecast was close to what
the newer solutions were thinking so only made minimal changes to
Weather should be mainly dry until Saturday evening, when we
should see some rain spread into the Panhandle as the low
approaches the south and should continue into Sunday night, and
possibly taper off later Monday to Tuesday, before a northern
large frontal band starts to move across the Gulf towards the
Panhandle on Wednesday.
public...areal flood advisory until 7 am akdt Friday for akz019.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for pkz012.