Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
318 PM akdt Fri may 26 2017
a vertically stacked 998 mb surface low north of Barrow is
expected to move off to the northwest, with weak ridging building
in over the Beaufort Sea from the east. A weak trough aloft
extends from this low to near Cape Halkett then south to near
Anaktuvuk Pass and diffuse southward to near McGrath. This trough
is diffuse and will be weakening further as ridging aloft builds
in from the southeast.
Another low aloft lies over the Bering Strait. This low aloft
is weakly reflected in a surface low south of Saint Lawrence
Island. The center aloft is splitting, with one center moving
south toward Dahl point. A remnant will likely move inland
to be near Saint Marys Saturday afternoon, then become stationary
before filling Monday morning. Another center will move northwest
toward wrangel island. By 4 PM Saturday, just a trough aloft will
persist along a line from about wrangel island to Saint Marys and
southeastward. This trough will continue to weaken as a low
(surface and aloft) south of Cold Bay develops. This low in turn
will move north Sunday and Sunday night to be over our western
interior at 4 PM Monday, likely lending some support to the
thermal low expected to develop over interior Alaska.
a warmer and dryer airmass is moving into interior Alaska from
the southeast, and a weak thermal low is likely over the eastern
interior on Saturday. Sustained gap winds in the eastern Alaska
Range zone will likely remain below 30 mph, though minimum relative humidity will
be in the 20s. Conditions appear no worse on Sunday or Monday,
but confidence in that is not great.
no issues (known).
brisk Wind Advisory for pkz235.