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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
400 am akdt Sat Oct 1 2016


Main forecast highlights include a continuation of the progressive
weather pattern across the West Coast of Alaska and Bering Sea
with an upper level ridge being the dominant player for interior
Alaska weather through much of the forecast period. The 01/00z
model suite seems to be in good agreement in regards to
significant features during the forecast period with minimal
spread seen between models through the mid range. There are
however significant differences between the ecwmf and GFS late in
the extended...especially with an upper level ridge over Mainland
Alaska and a strong low out in the Bering Sea.

Western alaska: currently, a 987 mb low near the Pribilof Islands
and associated weather front are currently moving slowly east over
the western Bering Sea towards southwest Alaska. Out ahead of the
front, there is a band of moderate to heavy rain over the
Kuskokwim Delta with a few showers moving over the lower Yukon
valley as depicted by the Bethel radar. This band of rain will
move over Saint Lawrence Island by sunrise then continue north and
east towards the Seward Peninsula and the middle Yukon valley with
the front. As the front moves east towards the interior and upper
level ridge, it will begin to fall apart with precipitation
across western Alaska becoming showery late Saturday with chances
for showers continuing into Sunday. Meanwhile, strong wind
headlines (gale force winds) will continue across the West Coast
today as winds remain strong, but as the aforementioned low shifts
northwest and over eastern siberian Russia, winds will decrease
Sunday and Monday. Surge values continue to be forecast to
increase to between 1 to 3 feet above normal tides to the west of
Golovin westward through the Bering Strait through late afternoon.
Short duration combined with short fetch will limit high surf
potential today in these areas. Another low will move out into the
Bering Sea Tuesday but then quickly move north towards eastern
Siberia Russia bringing only a chance of precipitation to the West
Coast. The next system to watch out for will move out into the
western Bering Sea late Wednesday into early Thursday. Will have
to continue to monitor this system for potential impacts to the
West Coast during the middle of the week.

Eastern and central interior: upper level ridge will be the main
player in weather over the interior throughout the forecast
period, but will shortly breakdown Sunday into Monday as
weakening surface weather front and upper level energy moves over
interior Alaska. As the weakening old weather front pushes east
over the interior and then stalls Sunday and early Monday, chances
for showery precipitation will be confined to the central interior
and the western Alaska Range while the eastern interior remains
dry. H850 temperatures over the interior will be the warmest this
evening and above normal with temperatures +4c to +7c. A cooling
trend in h850 temperatures is expected Sunday through next week.
Currently, south winds gusting up to 50 mph have been observed at
the Antler creek RAWS site along the Parks Highway. Southerly gap
winds are expected to ramp up a bit along the Richardson Highway
this morning with southerly gap winds continuing along the Parks
and Richardson highways through early Sunday. Southeast winds near
Delta Junction will also develop this morning and continue through
early Sunday. No headlines are expected as winds are expected to
remain advisory wind criteria. One additional note...may see some
accumulating snow at higher elevations along the Parks and
Richardson highways...a few inches at most Sunday evening through
late Monday afternoon.

North Slope and Arctic coast: easterly flow will continue through
late Sunday before becoming westerly early next week. Gale force
winds are expected over the eastern Beaufort Sea and Arctic coast
late this afternoon and evening and thus will continue a strong
wind headline for the eastern Beaufort Sea coast through this
evening where winds will gust up to 45 mph. However it looks like
winds will not be as strong near Barrow...maybe up to 35 mph,
where another strong wind headline was issued earlier, but will
be taken down since winds will be weaker. Areas of fog with
visibility under 1 miles have been observed along the coast from
deadhorse east. Expecting this fog to spread west along the coast
with the easterly flow as guidance suggests today and will likely
persist through Sunday. Chances for precipitation will be low
through the forecast period.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...continue to monitor track
and strength of a storm developing the middle of next week over
the Bering Sea.


Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Small Craft Advisory for pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-

Gale Warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz245.


Lth Oct 16

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