Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
127 PM akdt Monday Aug 29 2016
tranquil early Fall weather pattern over northern Alaska through
Aloft...at 500 hpa a large amplitude high pressure ridge currently
centered over the southern Chukchi Sea and extending south into
the Bering Sea will slide south and east to be located over
Kotzebue Sound tonight and the Seward Peninsula Tuesday. Two upper
level lows one over the Alaska Panhandle and the other over the
western Aleutians will remain quasi-stationary through the week. A
front currently over the eastern North Slope will continue to move
east into the Yukon and high Canadian Arctic.
On the surface a 1040 mb high pressure 100 nm north of Prudhoe
Bay will continue to drift east to be located 200 nm north of
Demarcation Point Tuesday morning as a 1036 mb high and will drift
east to be located 250 nm north of the McKenzie Delta Wednesday
morning. Mostly sunny skies are found over much of northern Alaska
with the exception of low ceilings and drizzle over the North
Slope. The pressure gradient between the 1040 mb high north of the
North Slope combined with a 1004 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska
continues to produce gusty north winds through the Brooks range
passes and east to northeast winds over the interior summits
generally 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s with a few
70s mixed in over the interior for day time highs while lows have
dropped to more seasonal lows in the low to mid 40s with the
drier air mass now over the interior. A few wind sheltered
locations this morning dropped below freezing with Nome creek
dipping to 26 degrees.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
min relative humidity values continue to drop over the southern interior with
values dropping into the mid 30s and a few locations dropping
into the upper 20s however neither winds nor temperatures are
expected are expected to meet red flag criteria.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz230-pkz240.
Ccc Aug 16