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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
323 am akdt Fri Aug 18 2017

Discussion...

500 mb pattern showed long wave troughing centered over Mainland
Alaska, consisting mainly of a 530 dm low located over wrangel
island. Several short waves are embedded within this trough, the
most prominent rounding the south side of the trough running
through the Gulf of Alaska. The upper low north of Point Hope
will swing southward through this weekend, to be located over the
Alaska Peninsula by Sunday evening. The upper low over the northwest
territories will move northwest through the Beaufort Sea, to merge
with another shortwave moving east through the siberian Arctic by
Saturday.

North Slope...periods of dense fog, drizzle and stratus will
persist there through Saturday night due to weak onshore flow,
before winds turn offshore from west to east across the Arctic
coast on Sunday in response a frontal system crossing the Chukchi
Sea.

West Coast...
upper level low will begin to drop down over the Seward Peninsula
by Saturday producing numerous showers for much of the West
Coast into the weekend. Showers may become more isolated by
Sunday as the upper level low drops further south and weak
ridging builds across the West Coast. Snow levels are expected to
fall to around 1500 feet over northwest Alaska and the Seward
Peninsula tonight, to persist through this weekend. Not enough
instability for any thunderstorms for the western interior through
the weekend.

Interior...weak frontal boundary will move slowly across the
western interior which will produce scattered to numerous showers
for interior Alaska through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible for the east interior through Saturday. Weak
shortwaves aloft will also enhance shower activity into
Sunday.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.

Fire weather...no issues under cool, wet weather regime.

Hydrology...the Tanana river near Tok and Tetlin has dropped
considerably during the past 24 hours and overland flow causing
flooding near the Tetlin Village Road and high water along the
Alaska Hwy should begin to recede some during the next few days.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...

The flood advisory for zone 224 in the Tetlin Village Road areas
through Friday.

&&

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