Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 272348
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
248 PM akst Mon Feb 27 2017
relatively quiet period as high pressure builds over the West
Coast of Alaska. An upper level trough moving across the central
interior will continue to bring snow showers through this evening
into tomorrow, but will then diminish across much of central and
West Coast of Alaska. Main concern and focus will be developing
blizzard conditions late tonight across the eastern Beaufort Sea
coast with strong winds continuing through noon Wednesday.
Arctic coast and Brooks range...blizzard conditions are expected
to return across the eastern Arctic coast along the Beaufort Sea
coast. Pressure gradient will begin to tighten tonight with winds
west winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph expected. The
combination of snow and strong winds will reduce visibilities to
to less than quarter mile, especially for area with with the
fresh snow across the area. Expecting Winter Weather Advisory
conditions Nuiqsut through deadhorse has the winds will increase
across the area as well but perhaps not as strong. However the
combination of wind and temperatures will allow wind chills to
reach 50 to 59 below. Strongest winds to occur for areas between
from mid morning through tomorrow evening.
Western interior and West Coast...isolated snow showers will
continue to diminish through the afternoon as the ridge of high
pressure builds overhead. Expecting snow to taper off and for
conditions to improve. Temperatures will drop 15 to 20 degrees
across the region and will remain below normal through late this
Eastern and central interior...decent snow band moved from Nenana
through Fairbanks and eielson bringing decent snow of half of an
inch to an inch and reduced visibilities to quarter mile at
times. This snow band will continue to move northeast across
middle Tanana Valley through the late afternoon. Snow will
persist across the region through Tuesday morning. There will be a
gradual cooling trend over the next few days, then a dramatic
drop in temperatures to below normal temperatures as skies clear.
Interior Valley locations could possibly see overnight lows 25
below to 35 below by Thursday morning. Many of the models indicate
colder temperatures heading into next weekend, with the
temperatures from the North American ensemble forecast system
(made of GFS ensemble forecasts and Canadian ensemble forecasts)
showing 3 Standard deviation colder across central and eastern
interior Alaska by next Monday than climatological normals. This
could be mean 35 to 45 below temperatures are possible in the
colder locations in eastern interior by weekend.
Blizzard Warning for akz204.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz203-akz206.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz245.