Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 281237
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
437 am akdt Wed Jun 28 2017
a long wave ridge over northwest Canada and northern Alaska with
a trough over the Bering Sea will persist into the weekend. There
will be a series of weak short wave troughs moving north over
northern Alaska over the next several days bringing isolated
showers to the interior and North Slope while the West Coast
will see periods of rain. Temperatures will remain above normal
over most of northern Alaska through the weekend.
A short wave trough stretching from Nome to Northway will move to
Point Hope to Eagle by 4pm Wed...to Barrow to Old Crow by 4am
Thu...and to Barter Island to Old Crow by 4pm Thu. There will be
showers along and just north of this trough along the West Coast
and western interior, scattered showers with it in th central
interior, and isolated showers in the eastern interior. Will see
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms north of this trough
over the North Slope and northern interior today, and over the
extreme NE of Point Thompson to Eagle Thu PM. Clouds and showers
will decrease south of this trough in the interior.
A second short wave will move north over the southern interior Fri
and bring another batch of isolated to scattered showers.
a 1018 mb high over the Beaufort Sea will build tonight and persist
through Fri. This will cause east winds to increase along the
Arctic coast late today. With warm surface air moving over the
cold water could see thick fog tonight and Thu. See
A thermal trough over the southern interior will move to Point Lay
to Eagle by 4pm today...to Wainwright to Eagle by 4am Thu...to
Barrow to Eagle by 4pm Thu then dissipating. The afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will be along and northeast of this trough. South
winds gusting to 55 mph blowing through Alaska Range passes into
this trough will decrease this afternoon as the trough moves
north. Since there is a ridge of high pressure over the eastern
Gulf of Alaska and Copper River basin that will persist into Fri
expect south winds of 15-30 mph to continue through Alaska Range
passes into Fri.
A 990 mb low in the eastern Bering Sea will move to the central
Bering as a 995 mb low by 4am Thu, then drifts west and slowly
weakens. A weather front stretching from this low to Gambell to
the Kuskokwim Delta will move to Point Hope to Bethel by 4am Thu,
to Point Lay to King Salmon by 4pm Thu, and then dissipating in
place Thu night. Rain will spread north today with this front
along the West Coast and taper off to scattered showers as the
front moves inland tonight and Thu.
at 06z surface map shows slightly stronger lows in the eastern
Bering and in the southeast interior than any models show and
slightly stronger high in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Result is
that winds will likely be a 5 kt stronger through the Alaska
Range than models indicate today...and several kt stronger along
the West Coast of Alaska. Models show similar solutions most
fields through Fri, except that the NAM has less areal coverage of
precipitation than the GFS and ecmf. Favor the wider coverage
shown be the GFS/ecmf though with low pops in the eastern
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
near red flag conditions due to strong winds along the Richardson
Highway from Black Rapids to Delta Junction today but rh should
remain above 30%. Could see red flag conditions near the Alaska
Clear Water streams falling slowly across interior, and stable
along the West Coast. Glacial rivers will be rising through the
weekend as temperatures and freezing levels remain above normal.
Wind Advisory for akz226.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz230.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.