Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXAK69 PAFG 262143

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread continues to be minimal in the short and mid range with
only minor timing differences on north bound shortwaves moving
over the Alaska Range through the upcoming week. Model spread
increases rapidly by the end of the week. 

Aloft, at 500 hpa, a longwave trough over central and eastern
Alaska will slowly retrograde to the west through the week with 
the trough axis moving over the west coast by Wednesday as an 
upper level ridge builds over the Yukon and the upper level ridge
currently over the eastern Bering Sea moves west to be located 
over the western Bering Sea by mid week.

A series of shortwave troughs will move rapidly north over the
central and eastern interior this week with the first in a series
of shortwaves moving over the Alaska Range Monday morning and into
the northern interior Monday evening. Clouds and winds will
increase over the southern interior Monday afternoon with flurries
or scattered snow showers expected Monday night and Tuesday
morning in these areas. Little or no snow accumulation is expected
with this shortwave. A second and stronger shortwave moves north
over the Alaska Range and southern interior Wednesday night and
Thursday. A weak low at the surface through 700 hpa develops over
the southern Yukon and will enhance snow fall over the Fortymile 
country as well as the eastern Alaska Range and central interior. 
Snowfall with this system is expected to be around an inch.

Temperatures will continue to slowly rise over the central and 
eastern this week. Over Fairbanks 850 mb temperatures will rise
from around 13 below Monday to around 6 below Friday. Surface
temperatures will rise from around 25 above Monday to around 35
above Friday.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations