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000 
FXAK69 PAFG 272051
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1251 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread from run to run as well as from different model families
remains minimal in the short range and is very reasonable through
the end of the week with good agreement on longwave pattern and 
only minor differences in timing with a series of shortwaves 
moving north into the eastern Bering Sea, the west coast as well 
as the western interior through the rest of the week.

Arctic coast will continue to be under the influence of high
pressure centered near Banks Island with easterly flow bringing
rounds of low clouds and fog with some diurnal influence with some
mild improvement in ceilings and visibility during the afternoons
over much of the coastal areas especially to the east of Barrow 
today through Friday. A weak low moving north out of the western 
interior late Friday and Saturday will bring increased chances for
rain and rain showers over the north slope especially to the west
of Barrow through Saturday.

Over the west coast and western interior a weak low moving north 
out of the north pacific will move over Bristol Bay tonight and 
will continue to move north along the coast and weaken to a 
trough. As the trough continues to move north rain showers will 
increase today with periods of rain developing this evening in the
lower YK delta and late tonight over the Seward Peninsula. A 
series of weak waves will continue to move north over the west 
coast bringing wetting rains and limiting fire weather concerns
through the end of the week.

Over the central and eastern interior weak ridging aloft combined
with weak down slope flow over the Alaska Range will continue to 
dry out the interior. Minimum relative humidities will drop from 
the 30s today to the 20s Wednesday and Thursday before increasing 
again on Friday into the 30s as moisture moving around a low in 
the Gulf Alaska pushes in from the southeast Friday. Temperatures 
will meet Red Flag criteria over a few locations in the central 
and eastern interior this evening and again on Thursday. Minimum 
relative humidity levels will likely meet Red Flag Criteria over 
much of the central and eastern interior tomorrow however wind 
criteria for Red Flag conditions are not expected to be met either
today or Wednesday. Thunderstorm activity will be along and north
of the thermal trough from near Chicken to Fairbanks to Bettles 
and Ambler today with a shift north along the Brooks Range 
tomorrow. The thermal trough will form again along a Chicken to 
Bettles to Ambler line on Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gap winds through Alaska Range passes this evening
and over night will meet wind advisory criteria in zone 226
however wind advisory criteria is not expected to be met in zones
225 or 223. Wind criteria for Red Flag conditions will likely be 
met this evening and over night in zone 226 however relative 
humidity criteria is not expected to be reached in zone 226 this 
evening and over night. Tomorrow minimum relative humidity values
will drop into the low 30s over much of the interior and 
temperature criteria may be reached at a few locations however 
wind criteria is not expected to be reached. Min relative 
humidities will continue to drop over the central and eastern 
interior into the low to mid 20s this week while relative 
humidities are expected to remain above 40 percent over the west 
coast and western interior with several periods of rain and 
showers moving over the area. Thunderstorm activity will be along 
and north of a line from Chicken to Fairbanks to Bettles and 
Ambler today with a slight shift north to along the Brooks Range 
tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Fortymile and Tanana Rivers will continue to run
high today and Wednesday with heavy rain event last weekend. 
River crests are expected to remain at or below bankfull stage.
Continue to monitor.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

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