Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 212220
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
120 PM akst sun Jan 21 2018
fairly quiet weather pattern will persist across northern Alaska
through next week end. A cold Arctic airmass has settled in with
areas of stratus/fog/flurries over the eastern half of the
forecast area as well as the western Arctic coast. Below normal
temperatures will persist in the forecast area through late this
week and the potential for marginal advisory wind chill values in
cold, breezy locations will also continue. The 21/12z
deterministic model suite is in good agreement through Wednesday
morning. Some spread between model solutions regarding individual
low position, track, and strength developing after Wednesday
morning and continuing through the extended range. The general
model consensus keeps a broad longwave trough and low center over
Mainland Alaska, which will be pushed south and east mid to late
this week as an amplified upper level ridge builds north over the
Bering and chukchi seas and then west over western Alaska by next
Eastern and central interior...the latest 1911z NASA sport 24-hour
microphysics rgb satellite image shows areas of stratus, fog, and
flurries blanketing an area east and south of a line from Bettles
to Tanana and minchumina. The stratus deck is not uniform with
many clear spots including several large clear spots north of
Fairbanks over the hills as well as east of Fort Yukon. The
variable nature of the stratus will play havoc with temperatures
through mid week. In clear spots, temperatures will drop and
locations under the stratus will see temperatures warm slightly.
This scenario will persist through mid week before weak easterly
return flow develops and pushes more moisture over the area
increasing cloud cover and precip chances.
West Coast and western interior...below normal temperatures will
dominate throughout the forecast period with the coldest
temperatures of 35 to 45 below found over the western interior.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight along the
West Coast and then warm by a few degrees through the mid week.
Meanwhile, over the western interior, very little change in
temperatures is expected. There is the potential for near advisory
wind chill values over the southwestern Brooks range and
northwest interior where winds will be marginal (10-15 mph).
Currently have a Wind Chill Advisory for zone 210 where wind chill
values have been around 40 below at Deering.
Arctic coast and Brooks range...Wind Chill Advisory for zone 203 has
been cancelled since winds have weakened to below advisory level
thresholds. Temperatures will remain below normal, but will warm
gradually through late this week. Stratus, fog, and flurries will
continue through tomorrow for the western Arctic coast.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
Wind Chill Advisory for akz210.