Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
114 PM akdt sun Apr 23 2017
general model consistency with the upper level features through
Thursday with the upper level low moving eastward across the
Arctic with frontal feature moving northward across interior
Alaska and extending towards Yukon Delta. A shortwave rotating
around the the upper level low near Adak will bring clouds and
precipitation to the Yukon Delta tonight as it spreads northward
toward Seward Peninsula by Tuesday.
Arctic coast and Brooks range: the main concern for the north
will be the dense fog that redevelops this evening into Monday
morning. Expect quarter mile visibility along the Arctic coast
line with areas of fog pushing up against the Brooks range. Light
onshore flow will also continue across the chukchi coast from
Point Lay up through Barrow with quarter mile visibility due to
the fog as well. However, fog should dissipate through the late
morning. There is a a low pressure trough in eastern Chukchi Sea
that will move across the Chukchi Sea coast tonight and spread
across the eastern North Slope area before dissipating. Stratus
along and west of this trough will spread east across the North
Slope tonight into Monday.
West Coast and western interior: a frontal boundary will bring
isolated to scattered rain and snow showers tonight into Monday
across the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon valley. By Tuesday the
frontal boundary will move northward with scattered rain and snow
showers along and south of Seward Peninsula as showers also push
into the western interior. Any precipitation accumulation will be
relatively light. It looks like it will remain colder for St
Lawrence Island for snow but will be rain along the West Coast
during the day and evening with transition or mixture of rain and
snow overnight. Along the northern Bering Sea and Bering Strait
the winds will remain from northeast with small craft and brisk
wind advisories extending from St Lawrence Island through Point
Hope. Although winds are not reaching strength for Small Craft
Advisory in Norton Sound they are close. Expect the winds to
diminish in Norton Sound by Tuesday.
Central and eastern interior: mostly sunny skies across much of
the interior with high clouds moving in from south. Continue to
have the warming trend through Monday. For Fairbanks, expecting
high temperatures in mid to upper 50s for Monday with overnight
lows around 30 Monday morning. The warming temperatures will allow
for the continued melt of area snowpack. Expect slightly cooler
temperatures across the interior on Tuesday and Wednesday as a
weak front will bring increased cloud cover and at least a slight
chance for some rain or snow showers.The GFS and NAM bring much
more precipitation along the frontal boundary but likely a bit
overdone in the precipitation. Thus expect isolated showers
extending from Fort Yukon to Galena on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Fire weather...no red flag concerns. Dry and sunny conditions
will continue across the interior today with only slight increase
of moisture for Monday. There will be an increase in moisture
resulting in increase in afternoon minimum relative humidity values on Tuesday.
However, the gradual increase in downslope winds with southerly
flow and moisture will limit any precipitation in the Alaska Range
on Monday night into Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz220-pkz225.