Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 232342
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
342 PM akdt sun Jul 23 2017
the 12z model suite initialized well today especially as compared
to the last couple of days. Model spread is minimal in the short
range and is reasonable in the mid and long range.
An early fall like storm continues to impact northern Alaska with
heavy rain, strong winds and high surf along the West Coast and
western North Slope. The heavy rain and strong winds will continue
to move inland tonight with soaking rains expected over the
western and central interior. One half to one inch of rain is
expected in these areas along with gusty west winds in the 15 to
25 mph range with stronger gusts.
A record daily rainfall record was set today in Nome with 1.70
inches of rain falling since midnight. This combined with an
additional one half inch expected tonight has prompted as small
stream flood advisory for the interior and southern Seward
Peninsula through Monday afternoon.
Heavy rainfall is ongoing in the western Brooks range with storm
totals through Monday night of 1 to 2 inches expected. A small
stream flood advisory has been issued for these areas through
1 to 2 inches of rain has fallen over the past 5 days over the
eastern Brooks range and eastern North Slope with another one half
to 1 inch is expected tonight and into Monday. A Special Weather
Statement for rapid rises on small streams and rivers in the area
has been issued.
High surf and elevated surf continues along most of the West Coast
as well the North Slope coast west of Barrow. A high surf advisory
has been issued for the coast from near Unalakleet to just east
of Solomon including both Unalakleet and Golovin for this
afternoon and continuing through Monday afternoon. Off shore waves
of around 6 feet combined with a storm surge of 4 to 5 feet as
well as 30 mph on shore winds will drive surf above the high tide
line as well as resulting in minor beach erosion. A Special
Weather Statement for elevated surf has been issued for the
remaining portions of Norton Sound and the Lowery yk Delta coast
for storm surge values in the 3 to 4 foot range and surf being
drive to near the high tide line.
A high surf advisory has been issued for Kotzebue Sound including
Kotzebue as well as for the Chukchi Sea coast north of Cape
Krusenstern for this afternoon and continuing into Monday
afternoon. Offshore waves around 6 feet combined with storm surge
values around 2 to 3 feet above normal tides and onshore winds
around 25 mph will drive surf above normal high water line and
produce minor beach erosion. A Special Weather Statement for
elevated surf has been issued for elevated surf along the coast
west of Cape Espenberg.
High surf advisories have been issued for the North Slope coast to
the west of Barrow. Storm surge values around 1 to 2 feet above
normal tides will combine with winds shifting onshore late tonight
and Monday morning to drive surf above the high tide line.
A strong winds along the the West Coast and Brooks range will
continue tonight diminishing by morning over the eastern Brooks
range. A High Wind Warning has been issued for wind gust to 60 mph
through the passes in the western Brooks range. A Wind Advisory is
in effect for the southeast Brooks range through Monday morning
for wind gusts to 45 mph east of the Dalton Highway. Gusty winds
to around 35 mph will continue over interior summits through this
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
heavy rain in the western Brooks range will bring sharp rises and
bankfull conditions to small streams with some drainages likely
going overbank. A small stream flood advisory has been issued for
the upper Kobuk and Noatak valleys, the lower Kobuk and Noatak
valleys through Monday evening. Nearly an inch has fallen in
Ambler and Red Dog mine with another inch of rainfall possible.
Further east, amounts will be less, so there will be rises on
rivers the next few days but all should remain within bank. Over
the eastern Brooks range and eastern North Slope 1 to 2 inches of
ran has fallen over the past 5 days. Another one half to one inch
is expected to fall over these areas tonight and Monday. Generally
one half to one inch of rain is expected over the western, central
and eastern interior as the front pushes east tonight and Monday.
Record daily rainfall today at Nome with 1.70 inches so far has
prompted a small stream flood advisory for the interior and
southern Seward Peninsula with expected rises on small streams
Wind Advisory for akz218.
High surf advisory for akz201-akz202-akz207-akz209-akz211-akz212.
High Wind Warning for akz205.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-
Small stream flood advisory akz208-akz217
Small stream flood advisory akz210-ak211