Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 162348
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
248 PM akst Thu Nov 16 2017
the 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model spread is
minimal in the short range but increases significantly in both the
mid range and the long range.
Aloft, at 500 hpa, a long wave trough over the eastern Alaska will
drift east to near the Canadian border Friday and will then merges
with a strong shortwave trough that dives south and east over the
West Coast late Saturday and early Sunday. The shortwave digs
south and east and moves over the northern Gulf of Alaska Monday.
The longwave establishes itself over eastern Alaska Monday and
will drift slowly west into the central interior Tuesday and and
Wednesday. A much colder airmass dives south and west out of the
Canadian high Arctic into northeast and eastern Alaska. There is
however significant differences in model solutions at this point
with some models bringing much colder air into eastern Alaska and
some models holding the cold airmass in the Yukon and north of
Alaska. Colder temperatures are expected next week with either
On the surface a 999 mb low currently over the central Brooks
range with a trough swinging through the central interior will
continue to move south and east tonight and will emerge into the
northern Gulf of Alaska Friday morning. Snow will continue through
the interior with storm totals generally in the 4 to 6 inch range
and 8 to 12 inches expected in the western Alaska Range and 6 to
10 inches in the eastern Alaska Range. A secondary low will move
east over the North Slope tonight and Friday and will bring
several inches of snow and blowing snow over North Slope.
Strong winds will continue this evening over St Lawrence Island
before diminishing after midnight. Onshore winds continue over
eastern Norton Sound and the lower yk Delta coast where high surf
advisories continue into tomorrow.
A 995 mb low over the chuktosk peninsula Saturday morning will
move south and east over the Bering Strait Saturday night and over
the yk Delta as a 980 mb low Sunday morning. Heavy snow and strong
winds are expected to develop over Seward Peninsula, the lower and
lower yk Delta and eastern Norton Sound Saturday night and
Sunday. Near blizzard conditions are expected in these areas.
Continue to monitor.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
high surf advisory for akz212-akz214.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz202-akz203-akz212-akz214-akz218-
Winter Storm Warning for akz201-akz205-akz206.
High Wind Warning for akz213.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz215-pkz230-pkz235.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz240-pkz245.
Gale Warning for pkz210.