Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
152 PM akst Sat Dec 16 2017
Aloft...at 500 hpa...ridge over the eastern Arctic coast will move
back into Canada by this evening. 502 dam low over Nunivak Island
this afternoon will weaken to 512 dam as it moves across the
interior on Sunday. The trough will continue to slowly move east
to be over the alcan border by Monday morning. Ridging will build
over the West Coast ahead of a strong front which will develop
over the Bering Sea by Monday morning. A 485 dam low will move
into the western Bering Sea by Sunday morning and to the western
Gulf of Anadyr by Tuesday morning at 493 dam. A strong shortwave
associated with the low will move to the eastern Bering Sea by
Monday afternoon, and over the West Coast by Tuesday morning.
Moist southwest flow aloft will remain over much of the state
Surface...a 973 mb low over Nunivak Island will move to
Kodiak by Sun morning, while a 997 mb low develops over Kotzebue
Sound. A 945 mb low will move to the western Bering Sea Sun
morning with a weather front moving to the central Bering Sea and
central Aleutians by Sun night. The low will move east in the
northern Bering Sea and the front will move to the West Coast by
Arctic coast and Brooks range...cloudy, light snow or flurries,
fog, blowing snow, and persistent winds of 20 to 30 mph will
continue through Sunday. Winds will diminish a bit Sunday to 10
to 20 mph, and the blowing snow will diminish as the winds come
down and the falling snow tapers off. Temperatures will continue
West Coast and western interior...snow showers tapering off around
the Yukon Delta as the 973 mb low near Nunivak Island moves to
the south tonight. Temperatures cooling through Monday morning.
The next weather system will be moving to the West Coast and St
Lawrence Island Monday and it will be quite messy with models
currently indicating snowfall of 6 to 12 inches, freezing rain in
the lower Yukon Delta and on St Lawrence Island, and winds gusting
to 60 mph on St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait coast. Local
gusts to 70 mph along the Bering Strait on Monday. Winter storm
watches have been issued for zones 211 213 and for the Yukon
Delta. Watches or warnings will likely be issued for northern
and inland zones tomorrow. Strong southerly winds and precip will
ramp up Monday morning and continue into Tuesday morning. Snow
will then spread inland on Tuesday. Southerly winds will continue
for the West Coast through the week.
Central and eastern interior...light snow around the interior
will taper off as a decaying front moves to the south slopes of
the Brooks range by this evening. Another chance of snow Sunday
for the middle Tanana Valley as a weak low moves east across the
area. Expecting light amounts of snow. Temperatures will continue
to cool. A strong weather front will move into the interior
Tuesday and Wednesday that could produce 3 to 6 inches of snow.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...strong south winds moving
to the West Coast Monday may impact the area. There is some
potential for a minor ice push on the south facing coastal areas.
Winter Storm Watch for akz210-akz211-akz212-akz213-akz214.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.