Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
115 am akdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Discussion...pleasant and seasonal Summer time pattern to
continue over northern Alaska through the weekend. The 00z
model suite initialized well against the 00z surface analysis
and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Aloft at 500 hpa, a ridge continues to build over the central
interior and will continue to drift to the east to be centered
over the central Yukon Friday. A shortwave trough centered over
the Bering Strait continues to move northeast and will be
centered over Barrow Friday and will continue to move northeast
into the Beaufort Sea Saturday.
On the surface a 1005 mb low currently over the northern chukotsk
peninsula will continue to move north and east to be located over
wrangel island this evening and will continue to move northeast
into the Chukchi Sea Friday. Southwest flow ahead of the low will
bring a round of small craft southwest winds along the northwest
coast. Rough seas as well as elevated surf will develop along the
northwest coast Friday and Saturday. Periods of low ceilings and
fog will continue along the northwest coast. Drying south and
southwest flow to the east of Barrow will limit low clouds and
fog in these areas.
A weak thermal trough along a Arctic Village to Whitehorse line
will move slowly north today to be along the eastern Brooks range
by Friday. Southwest winds along the West Coast will bring low
ceilings, fog and scattered showers along the coast but mostly
clear and dry conditions will exist inland. The ridge aloft will
limit thunderstorm activity over much of the western and central
interior with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over
the eastern Brooks range.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...models have a 988 mb low
moving across the Chukchi Sea and Arctic that could produce some
high surf along the Northwest Arctic coast Friday night and
Fire weather...relative humidity values across the state are
expected to remain above 25 percent in the central and eastern
interior, except for the upper Yukon Flats and upper Porcupine
River Valley where they may dip into the upper teens and low 20s.
In the western interior and West Coast values will generally be
in the 30s and 40s. Winds will remain below red flag criteria
across the forecast area. Temperatures across the interior will be
in the 70s, so near red flag conditions will continue today and
Friday for the central and eastern interior.
Hydrology...no concerns through the weekend.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz235.