Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
341 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 340 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

Clouds have departed through the afternoon, with mostly clear skies
over most of the County Warning Area. Still watching a batch of clouds sliding south
across eastern ND which may affect the Coteau region later this
evening. Lows tonight will largely depend on cloud cover, which
looks to affect mainly eastern areas, but the big question is areal
coverage. With a surface high moving in tonight, winds will go light
and temps will drop nicely. Lowered temps away from superblend, more
towards to colder met guidance. Only thing that may keep temps up
just a tad is the higher dewpoints/higher low level moisture over
the area. This will also lead to some fog potential as well so have
included that in favored areas.

High pressure will move off to the east on Monday, with increasing
southeast winds through the day. Conditions will become breezy/windy
over central South Dakota and have once again raised winds a bit above
superblend. This was a collaborative effort from surroundings

Will then be watching precipitation move into the region on Tuesday
as low pressure ejects into the Central Plains. Models continue to
hit the eastern County Warning Area the hardest with shower potential and pops are
now in the likely category along and east of the James River for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. With upslope flow over the Coteau
during the duration of event, could see higher precip totals in this
region, and models do hint at this.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 340 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

Longer range models support similar output for Wednesday and
Thursday, high pressure building over the region and dry conditions.
Beyond that, forecaster confidence takes a large dive as models
become out-of-sync handling the timing/track of S/ws moving through
upper level steering flow days 5 through 7. Presently, Thursday
looks like the warmest day of the period before a strong cold
front(timed differently in the models) sweeps through the region
turning things markedly colder heading into the front end of the


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1232 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

The North Dakota stratus made it down into this area this morning.
MVFR cigs have been reported at kmbg, kabr and Katy. Per regional
satellite trends and short range model guidance, stratus should
dissipate at these three terminals over the next few hours. By
00z, all four terminals should be into some VFR conditions that
persist into Monday. With high pressure settling over the region
tonight, winds will go light. The light winds and clear skies
could end up promoting a few hours of radiation fog potential
toward dawn.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...tmt
long term...dorn

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations