Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kabr 251733 aac 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1133 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017

issued at 1028 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Forecast appears to be on track so no major changes needed at this


Short term...(today through Monday afternoon)
issued at 355 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017

High pressure continues to drift south today, with return flow
developing across the County Warning Area. 925mb warm advection and a favorable
mixing wind are expected ahead of a weak wave. 925mb temperatures
upwards of +2c suggests central and western counties could get close
to 40f. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and convective instability
will also support convective elements as the shortwave moves into
western counties this afternoon. There is actually two waves evident
in the NAM, with the first responsible for the "bulk" of the
precipitation. Cams suggest a band of snow showers moving at a
decent clip across the County Warning Area which will also limit quantitative precipitation forecast. The rest of
the forecast appears dry with a low amplitude ridge building in from
the northwest. Cold advection follows the shortwave early Sunday,
but with light westerly flow we should again see favorable mixing
conditions Sunday, with highs again upwards of 40f west of the James
Valley. The colder air will hang on in the northeast however. Mild
air expands east and will allow for more widespread 40 degree
weather on Monday.

Long term...(monday evening through friday)
issued at 355 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017

As has been advertised, the active weather pattern during the long
term portion of the forecast looks to prevail. Weak, clipper like
systems traveling along in a west to northwest flow pattern across
the northern plains and upper Midwest will deliver periodic, but low
chances for precip next week. The best chance for this County Warning Area to see
any organized pcpn appear to be late Monday into Tuesday when some
light snow will be possible. Little to no accumulation is expected
with this system at this time. After that, relatively more quiet
conditions may take hold with only minor, localized shots at pcpn
mid to late week.

The temperature trend through the period will remain at to above
normal for late February and early March. Overnight lows will
generally range from the teens to 20s. Daytimes highs are expected
to top out in the 30s and 40s each day during this forecast period.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1130 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017

For this issuance am sticking with mainly VFR conditions for the
entire taf valid period. Rain and snow showers are possible mainly
at kabr/kmbg later this afternoon and evening.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations