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FXUS63 KABR 210001 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
701 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Surface high pressure will slide off to the east tonight as an 
elongated low pressure system currently over the Rockies begins to 
intensify and push eastward. By late Thursday afternoon, the low 
will be centered over Colorado with a boundary extending 
northeastward to eastern North Dakota. Conditions will remain dry 
during this time period, with southerly flow bringing warmer air up 
into the region. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with highs on 
Thursday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The long term will characterized as a fairly active period. Positive 
tilt western conus mid level trof will come out in pieces through 
the period. First chunk of energy comes out Friday into Friday 
night. There is good shear/instability, particularly along and east 
of the I29 corridor, so SPC slight risk looks good for now. After
Friday night, the entire mean frontal boundary slides a bit 
further east, taking the highest amounts of available energy with 
it, thus severe weather looks fairly minimal beyond about 60 to 72

Severals waves of energy aloft and a nearly stationary front will
set up the potential for a couple periods of heavy rain, especially
across the eastern CWA. The first event should be Saturday night 
into Sunday. The second event should occur Sunday night into 
Monday, but may be slightly displaced southeast of the first heavy
rain band. 

As for temperatures, they will likely start out above normal early 
in the period, but then trend to below normal over the weekend as 
frontal boundary continues to sink south.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through late afternoon
on Thursday. There is the potential for some low level wind shear
between 1000ft and 2000ft agl later tonight into early Thursday 
morning as another strong low level jet develops.




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