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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
551 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

issued at 551 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.


Short term...(this evening through Monday afternoon)
issued at 325 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

As of 20z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over
South Dakota with a warm air advection band of pcpn crossing the eastern County Warning Area. With
temps aoa freezing, believe most of the pcpn will fall as rain,
with pockets of snow. As this system pushes east of the County Warning Area later
this evening, another shortwave will cross the region tonight.
Hi-res models suggest pcpn with this system will remain in North
Dakota. With the GFS a bit further south, will maintain the schc
to chc pops from the previous forecast. Sunday will be dry and
mild with highs in the mid to upper 30s. A low pressure system
will begin crossing the region late Sunday night through Monday
night. Models have been fairly consistent with the heaviest
snowfall occurring in North Dakota. Yesterday's 12z outlier, the
Canadian, even trended north. Accumulating snowfall still looks
best in north central South Dakota for this County Warning Area. Snowfall amounts of 1-2
inches could be possible. While winds will be gusty, the blowing
snow model does not show much potential for blowing snow. The
blowing snow index off the NAM does show a low probability of
seeing reduced visibilities. Will hold off on adding blowing snow
into the forecast for now as it will depend on falling snow. With
temps in the low to mid 30s today and Sunday, the current snow
cover will not be a factor.

Long term...(monday evening through saturday)
issued at 325 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

The main story at the beginning of the extended will be the broad
upper trough that digs into the plains. This will usher in some of
the coldest air of the season so far. Highs will only top out in the
teens through the end of the work week. Breezy conditions on Tuesday
and Wednesday will also add to the cold.

On Thursday, some shortwave forcing and some cold air advection may help to
generate some flurries or snow showers across eastern South Dakota
and west central Minnesota. Otherwise, the best chances for precip will not
occur until Saturday when the GFS has another upper low dips in from
the north as a sfc low moves through the Southern Plains. The GFS
pushes snow chances much further north than the European model (ecmwf). The European model (ecmwf)
drops an Arctic sfc high over ND on Saturday which will drag in
drier air and develop a sharp precip/no precip cutoff along Highway 212.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 551 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

IFR/MVFR stratus clouds are expected to move out of abr this
evening and remain in at aty through the night. An upper level low
pressure area swinging across the region may bring some brief light
snow showers to mbg, abr, and aty later tonight/early Sunday.
Otherwise, Sunday should be mainly VFR for all locations.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


short term...South Dakota
long term...wise

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