Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 220222 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
822 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017
added pops to portions of the east central for tonight as isolated
thunderstorms have developed from Lea into Roosevelt County most
likely spawned by the outflow boundary from storms farther south.
Recent rap13 picked up on this activity and hangs onto it until after
midnight, while the hrrr has not yet latched onto anything in that
part of the forecast area. Updated zone forecast product has been transmitted.
Previous discussion...521 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017...
00z taf cycle
plume of moisture stretching from south to north over western and
central nm with drier air over the northeast and east central parts
of the state. Mts occasionally obscured in brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
associated with sct tstms over central and western nm til around 03z
then transition to mid clouds with sct showers. Wind gusts to around
40kt associated with the stronger storms. Upper high center to the
east of nm to weaken with the high center over the Great Basin
regaining dominance next 24 hrs, which will result in moisture
and convection starting to work into the east aft 22/18z while
redeveloping over the west and central.
Previous discussion...315 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017...
much of eastern nm will remain dry today and Saturday, but showers
and thunderstorms will persist across western and central New Mexico.
Locally heavy rain and areas of flooding will be possible. Storm
coverage is expected to increase area wide on Sunday after a boundary
slides down the plains and through the gaps of the Central Mountain
chain Saturday night. Heavy rain and flash flooding will remain a
threat. Thereafter, the upper level high will build over New Mexico,
decreasing the chances for storms through the middle of the week.
abundant dry air remains in place over eastern nm this afternoon,
relegating showers and thunderstorms to central and western nm. So
far, a rather tame set of storms given near 0.99" precipitable water on the 12z
abq sounding, and an mesoscale convective vortex over the Southwest Mountains and another
over NE Arizona. Additionally, satellite imagery is showing the moisture
plume getting squeezed between the persistent ridge to the east, and
developing ridge to the northwest. With the plume becoming more
focused, combined with the other aforementioned reasons, expect at
least western nm to become more active through the early evening,
with areas of flooding possible. Rainfall rates could exceed 2"/hr.
On Saturday, the ridge to the east of nm will weaken, while the high
to the northwest will strengthen. Meanwhile, the dry air that is
over eastern nm today, may actually advect a bit westward across
central nm around the strengthening high. So, it's not looking like
as much of an uptick on Saturday as previously thought. However, it
does appear that the northern mountains will remains quite active,
as well the Southwest Mountains. Pwats won't change much overall,
perhaps slightly less, so locally heavy rains will remain possible
in these areas.
Saturday night should see an increase in activity at least across
northeast nm. A boundary across Colorado will push southward into
the plains, convectively aided. This boundary will be a focus for
precipitation on Sunday, though the NAM and the GFS are a bit at
odds with regards to how far south and west this boundary will go.
Will hedge closer to the NAM as it is more in line with the European model (ecmwf).
Therefore, there should be plenty of upslope flow across the plains
on Sunday and storms should initiate over the Central Mountain chain
and spread across at least the northeast plains. Storms may stay
closer to the high terrain across the southeast, but that will
depend on if there are any remnant boundaries from the previous
nights convection. Meanwhile, the high terrain of western nm should
remain active. All-in-all, this may be the busiest day of the next
several. Pwats look to increase some as well, so the potential for
flash flooding remains.
On Monday, the upper high that was to the northwest of nm will build
right over nm. This will result in less convection, though the
mountains will remain active. The high will remain over nm through
at least mid week, thus lesser storm coverage is expected each day.
There will still be storms, but relegated mainly to the mountains.
Could see an increase in storm coverage late in the week if the
upper high can shift a bit eastward.
a thin axis of deeper moisture centered over central and western nm
will be the focus for the best coverage of showers and storms with
wetting rainfall through the weekend. Storm motions toward the north
and northwest today will shift more toward the northeast and become
slow and erratic toward the southeast through Sunday. Locally heavy
rainfall with flash flooding is possible mainly for the northern and
western high terrain, especially areas that receive multiple rounds
A couple models are trending drier for the southeastern half of the
region this weekend. The frontal boundary advertised to shift out of
Colorado doesn't look as robust and a very dry mid and upper level
airmass to our east is maintaining a tight grip over eastern nm.
Temperatures will remain hot across the east while readings across
the west trend near to below normal. Weaker flow aloft will favor
deteriorating ventilation through the weekend all areas.
There are even more notable changes from models the past 18 hours
that will impact precipitation coverage next week. A dry and hot
upper high center to the east of nm and another gathering strength
over the Great Basin are now shown to choke the moisture plume and
shift the pool of moisture into southwestern nm and Arizona beginning
Tuesday. As a result, temperatures have trended warmer through next
week for central and eastern nm while the focus for greater storm
coverage shifts into far western nm and Arizona. Ventilation in this
pattern will remain poor/fair for most of the region.