Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
536 am MDT Thu Jul 19 2018
12z taf cycle
the upper level high pressure system will migrate back over nm from
the northwest today causing thunderstorms to move slowly or not at all. The
west central and Southwest Mountains will be favored for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms, with scattered to isolated activity over the remainder of the
high terrain. A few cells may travel over the Central Valley and the
northeast plains this evening. Wet microbursts will be capable of
erratic wind gusts over 45 kt near stronger storms, especially over
the west central and southwest areas. High temperatures will climb
around 5 to 14 degrees above normal across northern, central and
eastern areas this afternoon making density altitude an important
consideration for operations near elevated terrain.
Previous discussion...501 am MDT Thu Jul 19 2018...
decided to issue a heat advisory for Chaves, De Baca and Quay
counties today. Zones are out.
Previous discussion...311 am MDT Thu Jul 19 2018...
hot will be the weather story through Sunday with showers and
thunderstorms mostly confined to the western and northern mountains.
A strong back door cold front will bring fresh low level moisture to
the state Sunday night and Monday, creating a big increase in showers
and storms from Monday through much of next week. High pressure aloft
will be dancing around New Mexico through next week, creating a
plethora of different storm motions.
we will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch for our Southwest Mountains
zone from noon today to midnight tonight. The main concern will be
flash flooding on the buzzard fire burn scar.
It's going to be hot through this coming weekend. Some high
temperatures will be near or above record highs the next few days.
High pressure will be over The Four Corners region today, slide
across northern nm tonight then take up residence over the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Saturday. Then the high will move back west over
nm Sunday. All the while the high will strengthen a little. Steering
flow for thunderstorms will be light and varied. The best chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be over the western and northern
mountains each afternoon and evening through Sunday. A few storms
will survive into the western and central valleys as well as the
northeast. The general trend for convection will diminish a little
each day through Sunday as the high builds. The main moisture plume
will unfortunately be over Arizona during this time.
A strong back door cold front will dive south into eastern nm Sunday
night into Monday, then rush through the gaps and canyons of the
Central Mountain chain Monday evening. Lots of low level moisture
behind the front will help fuel a sharp increase in showers and
thunderstorms all of next week. The activity will be widespread each
afternoon into the night, with areas of heavy rain and an increasing
concern for isolated flash flooding.
there will be an uptick in convective coverage and rain amounts over
west central and southwest areas today. Elsewhere across central and
northern nm cells will be more isolated, except for scattered
coverage in the northern mountains. The subtropical high pressure
system will migrate back overhead from the northwest today, and this
will cause storms to move very slowly and perhaps even become
stationary. The greatest risk of flash flooding will be below burn
scars in the west central and Southwest Mountains.
The upper high is forecast to shift just east of nm at the end of
the week. It will steer drier air over the area from the southeast
Friday through Sunday with a downtick in thunderstorm activity.
Precipitable water values over central and eastern areas should
bottom out Saturday around 0.5-0.75 inch, while remaining near an
inch along the Arizona/nm border. Portions of the Central Valley and
eastern plains can expect minimum humidities below 15 percent this
weekend, while high temperatures climb a few to around 10 degrees
above normal across the forecast area each afternoon.
An upper level trough exiting the northern and central rockies will
steer a moist back door front southwestward through the fire weather
forecast area Sunday night. The front should reach the Arizona border by
Monday evening as the high pressure system aloft sinks over
southwest nm. There will be an uptick in thunderstorm coverage and
rainfall intensity starting over the northeast as early as Sunday
night, then across much of the forecast area Monday and Tuesday as
the high pressure system migrates westward over Arizona and moist
easterly low level flow persists. Temperatures will also fall with
the front and increasing precipitation coverage.
Look for moisture to recycle Wednesday as the upper high stays west
of nm. The high is forecast to stay west of nm through the end of
the week potentially allowing a couple more moist back door cold
fronts to arrive.
heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... nmz534-537-538.
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the
following zones... nmz508.