Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
546 am MDT Monday Jul 25 2016
12z taf cycle
greater coverage of shra/tsra W/ heavy rain is expected today as
a well-defined wind shift moves SW across eastern nm. Much deeper
moisture content will result in MVFR vsbys in heavy rain W/ LCL
excursions to IFR possible from direct hits. Gusty outflow winds
and frequent lightning strikes will be common as well. Greatest
confidence area for impacts expected at klvs and ktcc aft 21z.
Increasing coverage expected for the rgv from ksaf to kabq in the
evening as outflows collide from the west and east. Latest model
guidance has -shra/tsra activity lingering well into tonight for
central and eastern nm, including krow.
Previous discussion...331 am MDT Monday Jul 25 2016...
temperatures will generally trend downward today and especially
Tuesday as some better moisture arrives. An uptick in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will be noted today and especially
Tuesday, when a weak disturbance will pass just north of New
Mexico enhancing precipitation. A few storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour both
days, mainly over western and northern parts of the state. Drier
air will move in during the middle to latter part of the week with
a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and rain intensity. Temperatures
should also trend upward again.
the upper trough exiting the northern and central rockies onto the
Great Plains Tuesday will shift the loosely organized mid-level
high pressure system northwest of nm. The high is progged to vary its
position around the Nevada/UT/AZ border through Thursday or Friday
before potentially drifting eastward toward The Four Corners
again. Models aren't very consistent on when or how far east the
high will drift. Thus, after pwats peak from 1 to 1.25 inches
Tuesday, they will fall to the 0.5-0.75 inch range across central
and northwest areas during the mid to latter part of the week. The
decrease in moisture will be less noted across eastern areas,
where a back door cold front may arrive Wednesday. This front
could keep convection pretty active across the east for another
day, before it trends downward there, too. The Southwest Mountains
should be favored areas for showers and storms during the latter
half of the week as better moisture lingers longest there. At
this time, Thursday is looking like the warmest day of the week
with high temperatures around 3 to 14 degrees above normal.
deeper moisture in place today and Tuesday is expected to create a
significant uptick in the coverage of slow-moving storms with heavy
rainfall. An east/northeast wind shift entering the eastern plains
today will help focus more widespread convection over the plains, as
well as trend temps down several degrees from the recent record heat.
The potential for flooding on recent burn scars will increase the
next 2 days compared to much of this season.
An unfortunate drying and warming trend will begin again over western
nm Wednesday as the center of the upper high rebuilds and focuses on
The Four Corners. A large dry airmass currently over the Great Basin
will move under this high and bring a return to very low min rh into
Friday. Dewpoint values may fall as low as the upper 20's across San
Juan County Thursday. Storm coverage will mainly focus on the higher
terrain each day with much smaller heavy rainfall footprints through
Friday and perhaps even Saturday. Fortunately, no signficant winds
appear likely outside of erratic and gusty outflows.
The upper high is shown to drift east starting Saturday and Sunday as
a trough develops along the West Coast. This could bring a return to
a more typical monsoon flow pattern over central and western nm for
much of next week. Models are however at odds with how far east the
upper high shifts. Given the overall tendency for the high center to
focus over nm this season will be conservative in advertising any
change to cooler temps and more widespread storm coverage for now.