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FXUS65 KABQ 291136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period with dry westerly
flow. Afternoon gusts will reach to between 25-30kts at a number of
area terminals. A backdoor cold front will result in a wind shift at
KLVS and KTCC overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017...
Dry, hot and breezy conditions will continue today before a 
relatively strong backdoor front brings relief to the heat Friday. 
This front will bring an increase in low level Gulf moisture, 
resulting in chances for thunderstorms along the east slopes of the 
Sangre de Cristos and northeast highlands Friday afternoon and 
evening. Gusty east canyon winds will develop in the Rio Grande 
Valley Friday night. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest from the 
continental divide to the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon 
and across the eastern plains Saturday night. Dry air will begin to 
push into western areas Sunday, spreading eastward Monday. 
Thunderstorms will be favored across the eastern plains both days. 
Temperatures will rebound to near to slightly above average Sunday, 
continuing into early next week.


Second day in a row of near record heat during the hottest week of 
the year on average has prompted the issuance of a heat advisory for 
Quay and Chaves counties for this afternoon. Relief to the heat 
across eastern and central NM remains on track for Thursday night and
Friday. Models have trended a tad slower with the front, now moving 
it into northeast NM after midnight tonight, backing it up against 
the east slopes of the central mountain chain around noon Friday. 
ECMWF the most gung-ho model with regard to convection for the ern 
plains Friday afternoon and evening. Trended the forecast toward the 
ECMWF solution given the opposing low and mid level wly flow which 
should act to create a fairly robust convergence zone along/near the
central mountain chain. Backdoor front plows wwd into the RGV Friday
evening and up to the divide by sunrise Saturday. Models agree that 
Saturday looks like the most active day for convection from the 
divide ewd to the central mountain chain. Convection shifts to ern NM
Saturday night. Bone dry west winds rear their ugly head once again 
across wrn NM Sunday, relegating convection to the southwest 
mountains and to areas east of the central mountain chain.

Dry low level flow becomes more nwly Monday as the Four Corners high
builds over the southern Great Basin. Monday looking like the driest
day next week with storms confined to areas near the TX border.
GFS and ECWMF bring a backdoor boundary into eastern NM on the 4th, 
possibly resulting in an uptick in storms from the east slopes of the
central mountains east. Models are in general agreement for mid and 
late week next week, progging the Four Corners high over NM. Low 
level southerly or sely flow keeps at least slight chances for 
thunderstorms across the east both days.

ECWMF continues to indicate an ewd shift in the Four Corners high
and the development of at least a weak monsoon plume for late next
week. GFS on the other hand moves the upper high nwwd to ern NV. Both
solutions end up with similar sensible weather with at least isolated
convection over NM.





Mostly poor humidity recovery to start the day, with fair to good 
recoveries across the Eastern Plains closer to the TX border. A dry 
air intrusion continues across the forecast area today, with many 
hours of single digit humidity forecast along with hot and unstable 
conditions. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop by 
afternoon, with a few hours of critical fire weather conditions 
forecast across portions of the Central/Northeast Highlands. 
However, sufficient coverage and number of hours is lacking for a 
red flag warning and wind speeds are forecast to remain below 
criteria across a majority of the area. 

A hot, dry and unstable regime will continue across western and 
central New Mexico Friday with weaker westerlies, while a backdoor 
cold front slides down the Eastern Plains and hits the Central 
Mountain Chain. Much cooler temperatures and increased humidity can 
be expected behind the front, which will advance west through the 
Central Mountain Chain Friday night to near the Arizona border by 
Saturday morning. The frontal layer will mix out and be replaced by 
a hot, dry and unstable airmass across far western New Mexico 
Saturday afternoon, with increasing chances for storms and wetting 
precipitation across central New Mexico where sufficient moisture 
will be in place. Chances for storms and wetting rain will spread 
east across the Eastern Highlands/Plains Saturday evening. An 
approaching through will spread dry air across the area Sunday and 
focus chances for wetting precipitation along/east of the Central 
Mountain Chain. 

A drying/warming trend will be in play from Monday through the 
middle of next week as an upper level high strengthens over the Four 
Corners. Depending on the exact position and strength of the upper 
high, sufficient moisture may creep west to the Central Mountain 
Chain for daily rounds of storms across the eastern half.



Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this evening for 
the following zones... NMZ534-538.


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