Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kabq 230508 aac 
afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1008 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
west to northwest flow aloft with occasional high clouds. Surface
high pressure over The Four Corners region with weak inverted trough
over the ern plains. Potential for isold MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys to
develop in br aft 23/10z over portions of NW and north central nm
where recent snowfall occurred, but confidence low. Otherwise,
stronger nly drainage wind expected at ksaf aft 23/12z gusting to
around 22kt.

&&

Previous discussion...935 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018...
update...
quick update for tonight's low temperatures. Kaxx has already cooled
to within 1 deg of the forecast low, as well as ksaf. New zone forecast product has
been transmitted.

&&

Previous discussion...230 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018...
synopsis...
a weak upper low will move south of New Mexico tonight and Tuesday
with light winds and below normal temperatures. Weak high pressure
aloft will build over the state Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures returning to above normal. A weak upper level trough
will move north of New Mexico Friday and Friday night with light
showers possible across far northern New Mexico. A Pacific cold
front will bring cooler temperatures to western New Mexico Friday and
to the entire state on Saturday. High pressure aloft will move
across New Mexico Sunday and Monday with dry and mild weather
expected.

&&

Discussion...
strong upper level closed low over northern MO this afternoon will
continue to move northeast to northern in tonight. As the upper low
pulls away to the east, winds aloft will shift to the west and the
height gradient will weaken rapidly. This will result in light winds
aloft and at the surface tonight. Scattered high clouds will drift
eastward across southern nm tonight, but skies across central and
northern nm will be clear. Light winds and clear skies tonight will
produce strong radiational cooling and below normal low temperatures
across central and northern nm with the coldest temperatures in
locations with snow on the ground. Lows tonight will be 5 to 12
degrees below normal across the region. A weak upper level trough
will slide southeastward across eastern Arizona and southwestern nm
Tuesday. This system will have very little moisture to work with and
its main effect will be to keep winds aloft light across nm and
eastern Arizona. With weak winds aloft and at the surface Tuesday, cold
air in place will only modify slightly, and temperatures will remain
near normal to around 5 degrees below normal.

The upper level trough to the south will close off Wednesday and
retrograde to the west over northwest mx by late afternoon. A
shortwave ridge north of the upper low will build across northern nm
and northward across the northern rockies Wednesday. Temperatures at
700 millibars will increase to between 0 celsius and + 3 celsius.
This warming aloft should push high temperatures to near normal in
the southeast plains and the lower and middle Rio Grande Valley and
above normal across the rest of the region. The ridge will quickly
break down on Thursday, as a Lee surface trough develops in eastern
Colorado. Southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph will develop Thursday afternoon
across the east Central Plains and northeast plains, as the Lee
surface trough increases in strength. Highs Thursday will be above
normal across most of the area and much above normal in the northeast
plains, where downsloping winds will contribute to low level
warming.

A fast-moving, weak trough will move across the northern Great Basin
Thursday night and across the central rockies Friday. Limited
moisture associated with the trough and a track to the north of nm
will produce only light showers across northern nm Friday and Friday
evening, mainly in the mountains. A weak Pacific cold front will move
into western nm Friday morning and cross eastern nm by late Friday
afternoon. This cold front will bring temperatures down by 5 to 10
degrees Friday. A weak backdoor cold front will enter the eastern
plains Friday night. Northwest flow aloft behind the trough and
surface high pressure building southeastward across nm will produce
light north to northwest winds Saturday with high temperatures
slightly above normal in western nm and 5 to 10 degrees below normal
in the eastern plains. A large ridge will strengthen over the
southwest Sunday and weaken slightly on Monday. This system will
provide dry weather both days with mild, above normal temperatures.

28

&&

Fire weather...
high temperatures will continue to rebound through Thursday, when
readings will peak a few to around 15 degrees above normal.
Humidities will trend downward, too, except for slightly moister
readings on Tuesday as an upper level trough crosses without any
sensible weather. Poor ventilation will become widespread on
Tuesday, before improving across the east on Wednesday as a surface
trough in the Lee of the southern rockies develops causing winds to
become breezy. A few hours of critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the eastern plains on Wednesday afternoon, but these
conditions are not expected to last long enough or become widespread
enough to warrant a red flag warning.

Fire weather concerns will worsen on Thursday across the east as the
Lee trough and flow aloft strengthen causing downslope winds to
strengthen, humidities to plummet near and below 15%, and Haines to
reach 5. The main concern is for portions of the plains along and
north of I-40, which may not be enough coverage to warrant a
highlight for the east Central Plains, but it probably will be for
the northeast plains.

An upper level trough will pass eastward over the central rockies on
Friday, when it will steer a Pacific front across nm from the west
with breezy to windy conditions and a few showers in the northern
mountains near the Colorado border. The strongest winds are expected
across the east, where wind gusts may reach 25 to 40 mph. Humidities
will come up while temperatures and Haines indices drop with the
passing weather system, but it does look like locally critical fire
weather conditions will be possible east of the Sangre de Cristo,
Sandia and Manzano Mountains.

With the strengthening winds Thursday and again Friday, ventilation
should continue to improve, but models show some pockets of poor
holding on mainly across the Central Valley and northwest plateau on
Thursday, then again on the northwest plateau Friday. In the wake of
a Pacific front Friday and Friday night, ventilation should plunge
below normal again pretty much areawide on Saturday and Sunday.

44

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations