Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
602 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017
00z taf cycle
isold to sct ts and sh will affect the western half of the forecast
area through mid eve then shift to the far west late eve through the
overnight. Localized heavy rain creating visible restrictions will be
found with the cells as well as gusty downdraft gusts up to 40 kt.
Abq/aeg/gup and fmn are most likely to be impacted by the cells. A
stronger and larger crop of storms will fire up Fri afternoon and
favor western and central areas once again.
Previous discussion...330 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017...
..risk of flash flooding to increase Friday through the weekend...
a slow-moving disturbance embedded within a surge of monsoon
moisture will continue to increase the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. On Friday, some storms
west of the Rio Grande will produce locally heavy rainfall with
isolated flash flooding events possible. The risk of flash flooding
will increase and spread to include central New Mexico Saturday. The
focus for flash flooding on Sunday will be along and east of the
Continental Divide to New Mexico's eastern border. The potential for
flash flooding could linger into Monday over the south central
mountains and much of the eastern plains as the disturbance gradually
exits to the south and east of New Mexico. Temperatures will also trend
downward with a back door cold front across northern and eastern
areas Saturday, then areawide on Sunday when highs will bottom out a
few to around 10 degrees below normal. Drier air is forecast to
arrive from the northeast on Tuesday with a downtick in thunderstorm
coverage and rainfall intensity, as well as warmer temperatures.
the main 500 mb high pressure center is now migrating to the
Mississippi River valley where it will remain through Friday. This
will allow a nice surge of monsoon moisture and an embedded
disturbance (formerly an easterly wave that recently crossed southern
nm) to lift northward over western nm with locally heavy rainfall
Friday and Friday night. The 500 mb high will redevelop over the
Great Basin Saturday, where it will linger through Sunday before
migrating eastward over Colorado and northern nm on Monday. This will shift the
monsoon moisture surge and embedded disturbance eastward over
central nm Saturday, then over central and eastern nm on Sunday. It
will also allow the aforementioned back door cold front into north
central and northeast areas Saturday, with a stronger push of cooler
and moist air into central and western parts of the state on Sunday.
Precipitable water values will spike, with readings over 1.2 inches
expected at Albuquerque both Saturday and Sunday, when the risk of
flash flooding will be most widespread.
Drier air is forecast to rotate around the upper high and over
eastern and central nm on Tuesday, decreasing the risk of flash
flooding but allowing thunderstorms to continue with less coverage.
a sprawling dome of high pressure centered over the southern Great
Plains will focus the main axis of monsoon moisture over central and
western nm through Friday. Meanwhile the eastern plains will remain
very hot and storm free. Storm motions over central and western nm
will be toward the north/northwest thru this evening. The largest
wetting rainfall footprints through Friday will be along and west of
the cont dvd. Storm motions Friday will shift more toward the north/
northeast and slow, therefore the chance for locally heavy rainfall
The potential for more widespread heavy rainfall is increasing over
the weekend as low level flow becomes more east/southeast across nm
and a weak upper level disturbance slides over the area. The threat
for flash flooding will also increase, particularly on steep terrain
and areas of western nm that see heavy rainfall the next two days.
Overnight recoveries will be excellent most areas. Lighter winds
aloft will lead to poor/fair ventilation most areas through the
weekend. Temperatures will trend cooler with higher minimum humidity
values all areas.
The active weather pattern will likely continue through next week
while the upper high reorganizes over The Four Corners region then
drifts slowly east over nm. This will lead to daily rounds of
terrain driven convection with locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will average near to slightly below with relatively high humidity,
thicker cloud cover, and overall poor/fair ventilation.