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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
549 am MDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Aviation...
12z taf cycle
high center over The Four Corners will surpress convection around
northwest nm today. A northeast wind shift into northeast nm late
today will favor -shra/tsra for klvs and ktcc aft 23z. Some hints
that activity will try to develop within an axis from the jemez
mts southwest across the cont dvd into southwest nm. Confidence
too low to mention in terminals within the rgv and around kgup.
Storm motions will be NE to SW W/ strong outflow winds the main
concern.

Guyer

&&

Previous discussion...349 am MDT Thursday Jul 28 2016...
synopsis...
the more or less blocking upper level high pattern will continue
through at least all or Pert of the weekend when most of the
forecast models begin to indicate a partial breakdown of the high
and some increase in moisture to help fuel an increase in
afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity. Today
should arguably bring the least amount of convection that we have
seen for a good number of days, though near or only slightly less
than on Wednesday. Look for potentially a further increase in
showers and storms for much of the forecast area for the better
part of next week, that is if the forecast models are not
mistakenly pushing the pattern too much toward the normally rather
wet climatology of this time of year.

&&

Discussion...
somewhat drier air is still being guided into NW and N central nm
and even points a little farther south and east than that due to
sprawling high pressure aloft centered over the southern Great
Basin. This should result in similar if not even a little less
shower and storm coverage than was the case Wed. Low lvl flow
though, for the most part, seems to be going against the higher
lvl flow and in doing so is forcing some modest to moderate
moisture recovery across much of the NW third to half of the
state. Still though pwats should continue to decrease at least a
bit in most of the fcst area today, lowering the heavy rain
threat somewhat.

Still looking for an outflow boundary or convectively enhanced
back door front reaching NE nm late tonight or Fri morn. While it
could help trigger a storm or two overnight, it is more likely to
encourage a more active Fri, particularly across the NE Highlands,
plains and perhaps east Central Plains due largely to combo of
modest to moderate upslope flow and increased low lvl moisture.
For the most part the fcst models also indicate a decent amount of
showers and storms across central, west central and SW nm. Feeling
less confident of these latter areas, thus have eased pops back
fairly modestly, though not insignificantly, across these locales.

With the monstrous upper high breaking down a bit and easing
slowly to the east over the weekend, we may see a bit of
moistening and also a little less subsidence, allowing for some
increase in precip coverage, but have opted to pare things back a
little for now as there is still some concern then and beyond that
the fcst models may be leaning too much toward climo for this
time of year. Residual moisture will keep it active, especially
over and near the higher terrain. Also there is some indication of
an easterly wave moving westward across Mexico, which may force
some seepage of moisture into at least SW nm by Sunday as the
upper high continues to shift eastward.

For a good portion of next week the GFS model indicated a further
eastward nudge of, or a least a weakness in, the upper high over
or just west of nm, while the European model (ecmwf) actually develops a weak
trough between central nm and east AZ, both scenarios bring a more
significant upswing in shower and storm coverage. Again, there is
still some concern that the models could be pushing toward a more
climatologically favored pattern than reality may actually
produce, so confidence in this pattern change still somewhat
shaky. As we get closer in time, the more the models stay with
this trend the higher our confidence will likely become.

43

&&

Fire weather...
the center of upper level high pressure over The Four Corners will
drift east thru Saturday. Above normal temps with dewpoints in the
20's to lower 30's across northwest nm will result in min rh values
in the low teens to even single digits again today. Haines values of
5 to 6 will also be common over the area for the next several days.

Surface moisture will be deep enough to support a few storms near
the high terrain of central nm today and the northeast plains with
steering flow from NE to SW. Wetting footprints will be small with
strong outflow winds the main concern. A wind shift is advertised by
guidance to enter the northeast plains late tonight and Friday,
allowing for a potential uptick in coverage over central and eastern
nm Friday and Saturday. Confidence is low as models are not in good
agreement with scouring out dry air and subsidence beneath the upper
high. Nonetheless, expect at least a slight increase each day in the
size of wetting rainfall footprints, a slight decrease in Max temps,
and gradual improvement to min rh values. Storm motions will become
slow and erratic through this period before ultimately ending up southeast
to northwest by Sunday.

Potential major changes are still advertised beginning Sunday as the
upper high shifts eastward and weakens its grip on nm. Deep layer
atmospheric flow will attempt to become southerly over the southwest
Continental U.S. And allow for what may be a significant monsoon burst pattern
to develop over the region. Time will tell, but it is starting to
look a heck of a lot wetter for a widespread area for all of next
week. Steering flows will trend from S to N, or even SW to NE in
this pattern. Temps would trend back toward or even below normal.
Will still remain conservative however confidence is increasing.

Guyer

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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