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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
609 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

00z taf cycle

An upper level disturbance and a quick-lived shot of Pacific
moisture will push into northwestern and portions of north central
New Mexico tonight and early Tuesday. This will kick off a few
rain showers with a few brief and isolated spots of MVFR category
ceilings/visibilities as Showers Pass through tonight and Tuesday
morning. Due to the brevity and localized manner of these MVFR
categoris, no mention has been made in kgup, kfmn, kabq, or kaeg
tafs. Otherwise breezes will be light to moderate with VFR
conditions prevailing under abundant high cloud cover that will
gradually fade.



Previous discussion...326 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016...
a weak upper level storm system near San Diego will lift northeast
tonight and Tuesday morning, brining scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to the northwest third of the state. Drier air
will work in from the west Tuesday afternoon ending all but a
shower or two across northern and eastern areas. Strong high
pressure is forecast to build over the state for the remainder of
the week. Temperatures will continue to be above or well above
average for late October.


low latitude wave headed northeastward toward nm tonight and
Tuesday morning. Impressive low level moisture surge pushing up
through the lower Colorado and up to and near Las Vegas, Nevada
today. Surface dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s as of this
writing with a line of thunderstorms that extends from San Diego
to southern Utah. Northwest third of the state remains the favored
area for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday
morning. NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS now progging some
light precip across the eastern plains during the afternoon along
with a few showers or thunderstorms over the northern mountains.
Despite the morning precip and clouds, high temperatures on
Tuesday remain above average for late October.

A strong ridge of high pressure bumps up over nm ahead of a deep
upper level trough diving southeast across the eastern Pacific
Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge gets pushed east of nm Friday
into Saturday but models keep precipitation mainly north of nm.

GFS still brings a closed upper low through Arizona/nm early next week
but European model (ecmwf) is weaker and slightly farther north. Equatorial
Pacific SSTs and the resulting convection lend themselves to a
weather pattern change which weather prediction models have yet
to glom on to. Thus, confidence remains low beyond the upcoming



Fire weather...
a very short-lived moistening trend is in play and will result in
improved humidity recovery and a decent shot at wetting rain tonight
into early Tuesday, mainly across western and north central portions
of the state as a shortwave trough moves overhead. Mostly good to
excellent vent rates will prevail Tuesday in the wake of the
shortwave trough, with sufficient left-over moisture and daytime
heating combining to produce a few showers or storms.

A large ridge of high pressure will build over New Mexico mid week
and result in mostly poor to fair vent rates, despite a renewed
warming/drying trend that will send daytime temperatures well above
normal once again. Winds and vent rates will increase/improve toward
the end of the week and into the weekend as the upper high shifts
southeast over Texas, allowing increased westerlies and Lee side
troughing prevail. Both the 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) are showing a
potential critical fire weather pattern developing by next Monday as
the jet stream moves over the Great Basin and central rockies.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...



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