Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 191728 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1028 am MST sun Nov 19 2017
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions with just high cirrus clouds will persist through the
next 24 hours. Stronger breezes will impact the east Central Plains
of New Mexico today with gusts to 20 to 25 kt. Stronger winds will
impact the mountains and adjacent Highlands of central New Mexico
Monday afternoon with potential mountain wave activity.
Previous discussion...252 am MST sun Nov 19 2017...
a cool and very dry air mass will remain over New Mexico today with
northwest flow aloft, but some warming is expected with high
temperatures returning to within a few degrees above normal, except
for southeast New Mexico which will be up to 5 degrees below normal.
A large ridge of high pressure aloft will edge toward the region
Monday with milder temperatures and continued dry weather. A weak
backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the eastern
plains Tuesday. Very strong upper level high pressure centered over
northern Baja California will expand eastward Wednesday through Friday with
unseasonably mild temperatures. The mild and dry weather is expected
to continue through the upcoming weekend, as the upper level high
pressure area remains the dominant weather feature over the
weak upper level high pressure and light northwest flow aloft across
northern and central nm today will result in continued dry weather
with milder afternoon temperatures. Highs today will increase to near
normal across most of the region, while highs in the east central and
southeast plains will still be as much as 5 degrees below normal.
Return surface flow around a strong surface high pressure area in
central Texas will produce south to south-southwest winds across the
eastern plains with 25 to 30 mph gusts in east central nm during the
afternoon. Several weak upper level disturbances will pass to the
northeast of nm Monday, causing an increase in northwest wind speeds
aloft. Afternoon mixing of the boundary layer on Monday will produce
some breezy conditions along the Central Mountain chain and in the
eastern plains south of I-40. West-northwest downsloping wind will
continue the warming trend with highs Monday above normal across the
entire region and well above normal east of the central mountains.
A stronger perturbation in the northwest flow will cross southeast Colorado
late Monday night and generate a backdoor cold front which will move
across eastern nm Tuesday morning. Highs east of the central
mountains Tuesday will be reduced by around 5 to 10 degrees, but will
still be a few degrees above normal. Highs west of the central
mountains Tuesday will continue to be well above normal.
A very strong upper level high over northern Baja California will expand
eastward Wednesday through Friday with dry air from the eastern
Pacific spreading into nm along with even warmer temperatures.
Heights at 500 millibars will rise to between 580 dm to 590 dm
Wednesday through Friday, and high temperatures may approach daily
records in portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Another weak backdoor
cold front is forecast to affect the eastern plains this weekend. The
GFS indicates that the frontal passage will occur on Sunday, while
the European model (ecmwf) projects that it will occur on Saturday. Both models show
the upper level ridge remaining strong through the weekend, so the
backdoor cold front will likely result in only a slight cooling
across the eastern half of nm with temperatures continuing to stay
above normal across the entire area.
an extremely dry airmass has set up over the state, as evidenced by
the 00z kabq upper air sounding showing a precipitable water of 0.05 inch.
Dewpoints in the single digits and teens characterize this airmass.
Look for a warm-up to begin today, with temperatures trending back
above normal areawide by Monday. A deepening Lee side trough and
tightening northwest flow aloft will lead to breezy to windy
conditions along the east slopes of the Central Mountain chain and
adjacent Highlands by Monday afternoon. Combine this with critical
humidity and Haines indices of 5 to produce a couple hours of
critical fire weather conditions along the eastern Highlands and
plains interface Monday afternoon. However, only small portions of
zones 107 and 108 will be impacted, so will hold-of on a watch
issuance. Ventilation will improve some Monday, but pockets of poor
vent rates will persist.
A reinforcing cold front will provide some cooling on Tuesday,
mainly across eastern New Mexico, but temperatures are still
forecast to remain above normal. A large and dominant ridge of high
pressure is forecast to build up over the Desert Southwest trough
mid week, with anomalously high pressure heights, leading to well
above normal temperatures but mostly poor ventilation across our
area. The ridge will continue to be the dominant weather feature
going into next weekend as it shifts east across northern Mexico.