Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 212334 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
434 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions will persist through the taf period. A backdoor cold
front moving west this evening will result in easterly gap/canyon
winds at ksaf and kabq this evening. Gusts around 20kt possible
until around 08z.
Previous discussion...329 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017...
strong high pressure near the Baja Peninsula will keep Pacific storm
systems well north of New Mexico through the Holiday weekend. High
temperatures will be above to well above average during the next
seven days. Friday is looking like the warmest day of the week with
near recored to record temperatures forecast for much of the area. A
weak and dry backdoor cold front will bring cooling to much of
eastern plains Saturday. The next real weather maker of any kind is
not expected until early next week when an upper level trough and
relatively strong cold front move through.
weak backdoor front continues to push south and west across the
eastern plains this afternoon. A brief east wind of 10-15 mph will
develop through Tijeras Canyon this evening with a southeast wind at
Santa Fe of around 10 mph. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
is big bubble with no trouble forecast. Anomalously strong upper
high centered about 150 miles southwest of Ensenada will keep upper
level troughs well north of the area. Warmest record for Thanksgiving
in abq in jeopardy with 68f forecast and a record of 67 set in 1949.
Near record to record high temperatures a good bet most locales on
Friday, especially east. A weak backdoor boundary is forecast to drop
into the eastern plains Friday night, cooling temps across eastern
nm Saturday. Otherwise, dry conditions with above to well above
average temperatures will be the rule during the next seven days.
GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring an upper level trough and associated cold front
through nm early next week. As of right now the trough is positively
tilted and therefore, rather moisture starved. European model (ecmwf) then drops a
deep upper low into the Great Basin toward the end of next week. More
convection in eastern Pacific will be needed for this scenario to
actually play out but it's not out of the question.
a backdoor cold front is progressing southwest into central New
Mexico and will bring some cooling to the eastern half of the state
through Wednesday. However, temperatures are still forecast to be
above normal. Vent rates will be poor to fair tomorrow thanks a
slightly cooler lower boundary layer and warming in the mid levels
of the atmosphere associated with a building ridge of high pressure
over the Baja Peninsula and Desert Southwest.
A warming trend will resume on Thursday and continue into the
weekend with temperatures trending well above normal, as the upper
high dominates over the Desert Southwest and southern rockies. Near
record high temperatures are likely Thursday through Saturday,
especially on Friday across the eastern plains thanks to downslope
winds. Mostly poor to fair ventilation is forecast Thursday through
the weekend, except for some good rates on Friday with improved
mixing of the westerlies.
Both the 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS show a cold front and upper low combo
impacting the state going into the middle of next week, but with
little moisture to work with. Meaning, a cool-down is likely, but
chances for wetting precipitation look to be little-to-none.