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fxus65 kabq 280104 aaa 
afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
704 PM MDT Sat may 27 2017

Aviation...
00z taf cycle

Thunderstorms are currently isolated, but have been strong to severe
in the far northeast corner of the state. While these will dissipate
into the evening, a strong cold front will usher in gusty winds over
the eastern plains of New Mexico. These will produce some gusts as
high as 35 to 45 kt. Some brief-lived MVFR ceilings may accompany the
frontal passage, namely in northeast New Mexico tonight. The gusty
conditions will then squirt through the gaps/canyons within the
Central Mountain chain, bringing some gusts to about 30kt near kabq
after midnight. Into Sunday, some thunderstorms are expected over the
higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico, but these should
be isolated with generally light rainfall, but potential for gusty
downburst winds.

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Previous discussion...318 PM MDT Sat may 27 2017...
synopsis...
west and southwest breezes will continue until around sunset. A
relatively strong backdoor cold front will push south through eastern
New Mexico tonight. This front will push west of the Central Mountain
chain after midnight and through western New Mexico Sunday morning.
Gulf moisture will increase behind the front on Sunday into Sunday
night, setting the stage for scattered thunderstorms Memorial Day
afternoon and evening. The remainder of next week is looking active
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening, possibly extending into the nighttime hours. Drier air
may begin filtering in on Friday and into next weekend.

&&

Discussion...
moderate west winds will diminish most areas around sunset. Backdoor
cold front is currently stalled near a Clayton/Sedan to Des Moines
to Raton line this afternoon. A few strong to perhaps a severe
storm or two are possible along and northeast of this boundary this
evening. GFS and NAM agree that the backdoor front will plow south
through the eastern plains this evening, pushing swwd into the mid
and lower rgv after midnight. High resolution models suggesting
strong north winds along and just immediately following the front
across the the eastern plains this evening. Issued a Wind Advisory
for these areas overnight. Pressure gradient associated with this
front is oriented more north-south across nm so not expecting a big
Ely push into the rgv late tonight, in the 15 to 25 mph range
downwind of Tijeras Canyon and Abo pass. East winds in the 20 to 30
mph range are expected at Capitan and through North Indian Canyon
into Carrizozo.

Model trend has been to send the higher low level moisture due
south through ern nm tonight instead of pushing it west and swwd
into central nm. Pwats slowly rise to near half an inch behind the
backdoor surge but remain in the upper 20s and low 30s across the
north and west Sunday afternoon. Models have also backed off on
instability for Sunday afternoon. As a result, lowered shower/T-storm
coverage to isolated for the northern and western mts. Models also
indicating that what convection does form over the northern and
western mountains Sunday afternoon and evening will likely be on the
dry side. Low level sely flow continues to transport Gulf moisture
nwwd into nm Sunday night and Memorial Day. Scattered wet convection
results over most mountain ranges and across much of northeast nm
Monday afternoon, spreading southward during the evening hours. Then,
as a weak upper level trough moves over southern CA, southwest Arizona
and northern baja, sely low level flow continues and possibly
strengthens across nm Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will result,
especially central and east. Best shot at strong to severe storms
looks like Memorial Day afternoon and evening when wly winds aloft
will be strong enough (~40-45kt). Winds aloft drop off Tuesday and
Wednesday making severe storms less likely across the east.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) weaken the upper trough over the southwest U.S.
Wednesday night with another trough/closed low to follow for
Thursday and Thursday night. With plenty of low level moisture in
place, models light up convection most areas once again Thursday,
continuing into Thursday night. GFS and European model (ecmwf) dry things out Friday
and Saturday with perhaps another weak low latitude upper low moving
in next Sunday.

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&&

Fire weather...
a back door cold front currently hung up over northeast nm will be
the main weather maker over the next 24 hours. For the remainder of
the afternoon, the front will not move much, but showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form along and behind it where
dewpoints have increased to near 50 degrees. The front will slide
south and west this evening and overnight through the plains.
Northerly wind gusts will spike up toward 50 mph as the front moves
through. Storms will be possible from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
eastward as it does so. Around or just after midnight, the front
will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain chain. Gusty
canyon winds will result in the Rio Grande Valley and the front will
push toward the Arizona border Sunday morning. Moisture will increase
behind the front as it pushes into the east Central Plains and Rio
Grande Valley. Overnight humidity recoveries will be good across
much of central and eastern nm -- much better than last night.
However, for tonight, storms will only favor northeast portions of
the state. Nonetheless, on Sunday, the extra moisture should be
enough to allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop. However,
much of the low level moisture will mix out with daytime heating,
thus not much precipitation is expected. Isolated dry thunderstorms
with gusty and erratic winds will be possible over the higher
terrain of northern and central nm. High Haines values are also
likely along and west of the Central Mountain chain. Otherwise,
Sunday will feature cooler temperatures across much of the state,
but most notably so across eastern nm.

Low level east to southeasterly winds will persist Sunday and into
Monday. By Monday afternoon, these winds will draw up Gulf moisture
into the area initially increasing precipitation chances across the
mountains. Steering flow should shift storms off the mountains
toward the east or southeast. Gusty winds will remain possible with
these storms.

Moisture will continue to advect into the area on Tuesday as low
level flow remains southeasterly and an upper level trough organizes
over the southwest Continental U.S.. storm coverage will continue to increase,
particularly over the mountains and over eastern nm. This wetter
pattern will continue into Wednesday, the drier air is expected to
slowly move into the state from west to east on Thursday and Friday.
However, there are quite a few inconsistencies in the models during
this time frame. Stay tuned.

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory until 3 am MDT Sunday for the following zones...
nmz530>532-534>536.

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