Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 192356
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
556 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017
00z taf cycle
an upper level low over east central nm and another upper level low
over far western nm this evening will move eastward tonight. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms will move across central and northern nm
through the early morning hours. Activity north of I-40 has weakened,
so included only vcsh in tafs before 03z in western nm and before
06z in central nm. More widespread thunderstorm activity is occurring
south of I-40. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected at
krow 04z- 08z, with a chance for MVFR conditions at krow 08z-12z.
Drier air will move across the region Friday with afternoon producing
VFR conditions and west/SW wind gusts 25-35 kts at kgup and kfmn and
gusts up to 25 kts elsewhere.
Previous discussion...250 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017...
upper lows centered over southeast nm and in Arizona will combine forces
to bring a welcome period of showers through tonight. Friday will be
drier behind these disturbances with stronger winds as zonal flow
aloft strengthens sharply. A deeper through will swing through nm
Saturday and sweep a couple of cold fronts through the state Saturday
and Saturday night. The weekend will be cooler, but mostly dry, with
only some rain and snow showers over the northern mountains. Next
week looks mostly dry. A couple of back door fronts will cause
temperatures to yo-yo up and down during the week in the east, less
so in the west. Winds will not be much of a factor until perhaps
later in the week.
showers and thunderstorms continue to Blossom this afternoon, mostly
south of I-40, thanks to a couple of upper level disturbances. The
trend toward wetter conditions will continue through the evening
with good coverage of rain showers through midnight, with the most
widespread area south of I-40. The rain will end in the west late
tonight and wet snow could fall on the northern mountain high peaks.
Friday will be much drier with any rain showers confined to the
northern mountains. Behind the disturbances the zonal flow aloft will
tighten sharply, as the next upstream trough blasts onto the West
Coast. Breezy to windy conditions will favor the western and
northern mountains, and the northeast. A few locations could reach
Wind Advisory speeds, but not enough coverage to issue any highlights
at this time. Highs will be warmer than today in most areas and
The upstream trough will sweep across the southwest on Saturday,
bringing a Pacific cold front with it. Thus a cooler day is in store
to start the weekend with some gusty winds. Precipitation will be
sparse, again confined to the northern mountains. A second cold front
will plunge south through the state Saturday night, making for a
chilly early Sunday morning. Northwest flow aloft will relax with
mostly light winds Sunday and very dry air over the land of
The northwest flow will continue next week. A couple of disturbances
will pass north of nm, providing only a glancing blow to the state.
The main impacts will be increasing wind and cooler temperatures.
Back door fronts will supply the cooler air, one Monday night and
another late Thursday through Thursday night. That means Tuesday and
next Friday will experience cool days, while the rest of the week is
mild for later in October, certainly above normal. Unfortunately any
precipitation will be hard to find, perhaps a little bit late next
week behind the last of our back door fronts.
a wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected to continue crossing
the area from the west with an upper level trough tonight. Wetting
footprints will be most common south of Highway 60, east of I-25 and
west of Highway 285.
In the wake of the upper trough drier and warmer air will arrive
from the southwest on Friday as another upper level trough crosses
the northern and central rockies. Winds aloft will also strengthen,
and a surface trough will deepen in the Lee of the southern rockies
causing southwest winds to become breezy to windy. The strongest
winds should reach 50 mph in spots over the northern mountains
(including the chuskas), as well as the northeast Highlands and
plains Friday afternoon. The upper trough will drive a Pacific cold
front southeastward through the state Friday night and Saturday
morning with brisk northwest flow aloft that will cause northwest
winds to gust around 30 mph from around Farmington southeastward
through Albuquerque to around Clines Corners Saturday. Winds will
probably be stronger in high places. A back door cold front will
also dive southward through the eastern plains Saturday afternoon
and night. The storm system could trigger a few light showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains near the Colorado border Saturday. In the
wake of the fronts, widespread fair to poor ventilation is expected
Sunday through Tuesday before some improvement on Wednesday.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the West
Coast and Great Basin Sunday through mid week causing the weather to
remain dry over nm. After cooler temperatures over the weekend,
readings will rebound areawide Monday only to fall again with a
gusty back door cold front that will push through the eastern plains
Monday night and into western areas Tuesday.