Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 162334 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
534 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions next 24 hrs under dry NW flow aloft. Lee side sfc
trough will push east somewhat tonight and Tuesday forenoon, changing
winds to light nly and nwly across northeast quarter of nm including
klvs after 17/08z. Light SW winds return to the ern plains Tuesday
Previous discussion...305 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017...
a warming trend is underway, with dry conditions continuing. Daytime
temperatures will jump above normal areawide by Tuesday, with plenty
of sunshine. Moisture from a tropical disturbance in the eastern
Pacific will move east into the state late Wednesday and linger
through Thursday, resulting in increasing clouds and chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds will pick up some on Friday
and temperatures will rebound with less in the way of clouds. An
upper level disturbance and associated cold front will hit the state
Saturday into Saturday night, bringing a shot at precipitation to
the northern mountains and much of northeast New Mexico. Short lived
cooler conditions will follow Sunday, but another warming trend will
send temperatures back above normal by early next week.
a very dry atmosphere persists across the area, with the 12z kabq
upper air sounding showing a precipitable water of 0.14". A warming trend is
underway, with the latest observed temperature 24hr change values
ranging from +3 to +12 across our forecast area. This trend will
continue into mid week, with highs forecast to return above normal
areawide by tomorrow.
Moisture from a tropical disturbance offshore of the Baja Peninsula
will advect north and east around an upper high, currently centered
over northwest Mexico, through Thursday. This moisture will get
caught up in the westerlies and result in a substantial increase in
cloud cover across our area beginning late Wednesday. Chances for
showers and a few storms will increase Thursday into Thursday night
as moisture advection peaks and coincides with the passing of a
shortwave trough. 12z model qpf is fairly low with unimpressive
instability, so wetting rain may be hard to come-by. However, Gulf
moisture may get into the mix as well between the south central
mountains and southeast plains Thursday night and result in some
decent wetting rain there.
Winds will increase late Friday with a deepening Lee side trough
ahead of an upper level trough and associated cold front, forecast to
push through on Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions are forecast
both ahead of and behind the front on Saturday. 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf)
solutions are in decent agreement with an open wave trough passage
before closing off a low over Texas on Sunday. This quick-hitting
upper air feature, combined with a brief period of upslope from the
backdoor segment of the cold front, will bring a shot for
precipitation to northeast New Mexico favoring the peaks and east
slopes of the sangres. Look for one relatively cool day behind the
front on Sunday to be followed by dry conditions with a warming trend
sending temperatures back above normal by Monday.
upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will flatten some on
Tuesday, but the warming over nm will continue. Temperatures will
trend up to 10 degrees warmer over today's readings, with the
greatest increases expected over the eastern plains. Humidities will
remain low on Tuesday, generally below 15 percent near and north of
I-40. Main issue will continue to be ventilation. Vent rates Tuesday
will improve over today, but areas that do break into the fair or
good category will only do so for 1 to 3 hours.
Wednesday still looks to be the transition day, with mainly zonal
flow aloft, and increasing high cloud cover ahead of a weak trough.
Temperatures may tumble a degree or to across the north and west,
but overall not much change from Tuesday. All areas will be 5 to 15
degrees above normal. Ventilation will generally improve area wide,
but will be stunted across the northeast thanks to a weak front that
shifts into the northeast plains.
Models are in much better agreement than this time yesterday with
regards to the moisture moving over nm on Thursday. All models are
showing a nice slug of mid and upper level moisture moving over the
state in response to a negatively tilted trough crossing the state.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms seem increasingly
likely across western and central nm Thursday, then spreading
eastward Thursday night. Ventilation rates will mainly be poor
across eastern nm as well as across the jemez mtns, but good to very
good vent rates are expected across the west.
The upper level trough will eject eastward on Friday, and stronger
westerly flow will move over nm as a broad trough moves across the
northwest conus. This trough will quickly move into the plains on Saturday,
and as it does so, an associated cold front will drop into nm.
Breezy northerly winds are possible behind the back door segment of
the front. Otherwise, it will be turning colder. As the front moves
south during the day, temperatures will be decreasing during the mid
to late afternoon. On Sunday, high temperatures should be just below
normal across the plains while a closed low develops over West