Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
526 am MDT Wed Jun 28 2017
12z taf cycle
over the next 24 hours VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
the northern and central New Mexico forecast area. Westerly breezes
will pick up this afternoon with some gusts of 25 to 30 kt possible
along and downwind of the higher terrain. Hot temperatures in the 90s
to triple digits will also yield high density altitudes this
afternoon, posing takeoff/Landing hazards.
Previous discussion...218 am MDT Wed Jun 28 2017...
relatively hot, dry and breezy condtions will be the rule through
Thursday. A backdoor front will offer some relief to the heat for
eastern and central areas Friday. Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances will return Friday, mainly from the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains eastward.
Similar conditions are expected over the weekend with afternoon and
evening thunderstorms favoring the Central Mountain chain eastward.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly above average for
late June and early July.
Bone dry airmass very evident at all three levels on GOES-16 water
vapor imagery this morning. This airmass will shut down thunderstorm
development today. It'll be tough to find more than a few fair
weather cumulus over the mountains during the afternoon. Westerly
breezes will develop and give today and Thursday the hair dryer feel,
especially east-central locations where downsloping effects will
result in near record highs both days.
Models agree that a backdoor front will drop southward through
eastern nm Thursday night, pushing wwd into the rgv Friday before
noon. Nam12 on board with the European model (ecmwf) solution of the past several
days, developing at least isolated convection over the east slopes of
the sangres, Sandia and Manzano Mountains Friday afternoon. These
storms then propagate south and sewd Friday evening. Storms across
northeast nm might go severe with 45kts of wly winds aloft. Low level
Gulf moisture pushes wwd once again Friday night, resulting in at
least isolated storms farther west Saturday afternoon. Models agree
that drier air will push back into wrn nm Sunday afternoon with
storms favoring eastern areas. Some storms across the east could get
strong to severe as a weak upper level wave moves through Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Four Corners high pumps up northward over ern Arizona and wrn nm Monday
and with dry nwly low level flow, storms look like they'll be
relegated to far ern nm. Upper high center moves little Tuesday but
with Ely low level flow across the ern plains, isolated
thunderstorms a fair bet east of the Central Mountain chain late-day
Tuesday. Four Corners high living up to its name for mid week next
week and beyond. Good news is that the flow near mtn top level
(700mb) is southerly or sely, allowing enough mid-level moisture to
seep in for isolated convection, mainly mountains, Wednesday through
Friday. European model (ecmwf) qpf for late next week across Mexico looks like the
North American monsoon will be taking shape close to the
..hot, dry, breezy, and unstable pattern today and tomorrow...
With high pressure aloft staying farther southwest of nm, westerly
flow will increase over the state today. This will result in a shift
to a drier, warm to hot, and unstable scenario today and Thursday.
With mid to upper level westerlies increasing amidst deep mixing,
breezy to locally windy conditions will develop this afternoon. Wind
speeds will generally stay below critical thresholds, but a few
localized spots may briefly exceed them, namely in The Highlands and
plains between Clines Corners, Las Vegas, and Santa Rosa. Seasonal,
but warm to hot, temperatures are forecast today in western to
central zones while the eastern zones are expected to soar above
normal by 5 to 12 degrees. In addition to the hotter temperatures,
the westerly flow that will overtake nm will usher in lower
dewpoints that will send relative humidity plummeting below 10 percent in most of
the forecast area. High Haines indices of 6 will also unfold over
the forecast area in its entirety. As has been reiterated in
previous discussions this week, today and tomorrow's weather
conditions may not exceed established critical thresholds (due to
marginal wind speeds), but the hot, dry, breezy to locally windy,
and unstable conditions should still Garner everyone's attention.
Little change will take place to most weather elements between today
and Thursday. Also of note, humidity recoveries will also be very
poor over most zones tonight into Thursday morning. Any rises in
dewpoints would be modest on Thursday, netting another round of
widespread 5 to 10 percent minimum humidity in the afternoon.
Temperatures may nudge up another degree or two in the plains,
flirting with record values in the triple digits with warm to hot
readings continuing elsewhere, just not likely record-breaking.
Again, the low humidity will be juxtaposed over some spotty areas
that exceed critical wind thresholds, generally over the High Plains
of northeast to east central nm. Into Thursday night, little
humidity relief or recovery is forecast for western to central nm.
The eastern plains will fortunately gain some humidity relief
Thursday night as the prognosis still stands for a back door cold
front to plunge southward through Friday morning. As the front
advects moisture into the eastern plains, some gusty winds will
accompany while temperatures are set back a few degrees. A few
storms could also exploit this added moisture, most likely along and
east of the Sangre de Cristos Friday afternoon/evening. In the west,
the seasonal warm to hot temperatures will persist on Friday with
dry conditions also prevailing.
The winds will quickly veer southerly over the plains of nm on
Saturday with moisture standing its ground. This should keep
isolated to scattered storms possible along and east of the Central
Mountain chain Saturday while the west suffers through the dryness
again. Through the weekend high pressure aloft will slowly be drawn
closer to nm, potentially near the nm-Chihuahua border by Sunday.
Some modest and modified subtropical moisture could potentially
creep into nm from the south, assuming the drier westerly flow
doesn't win out. The current forecast keeps isolated storms in the
Southwest Mountains for Sunday and Monday with the Central Mountain
chain and portions of the plains also retaining these low chances
with the potential remnant low moisture. A return flow could
establish on Tuesday, yielding a few more storms along and east of
the Central Mountain chain.